After Ukraine’s failed summer offensive in 2023, Western nations lost a clear strategic vision. This absence of a coherent goal has allowed Trump’s approach to gain traction, even though it doesn’t address long-term European security concerns. Which Trump defines as no longer his problem.
The world is still an anarchy. The threat of the zero-sum game is ever-present.
That said, there is much to commend Trump peace's deal: it will force Europe to come up with a counter-offer. European leaders are meeting tomorrow, Monday 17 February.
That’s more or less the way I see it. Of course, Democrats and the Left will lambaste Trump for “abandoning Ukraine,” while memory holing the sorry tale of how Biden & Co, botched their Ukraine policy. Tough talk accompanied by hesitation and dithering got us where we are today. The possibility of handing V. Putin a decisive defeat, which was there two years ago, is gone now.
Your mention of Neville Chamberlain is apt, though I don't think there's any chance that Donald Trump will be labelled as such; Europe instead will be. I also think there's no downside for Trump to make any peace, just for Europe. Europe is in danger of getting caught on the horns of a dilemma that has Trump making peace but leaving Ukraine’s security guaranteed by Europe’s military. Europe then must decide whether to commit troops into Ukraine or abandon it.
Here are some scenarios ...
Europe commits troops. Russia might not directly attack the peacekeepers. Instead they might attempt to politically destabilise Ukraine. If Ukraine’s internal political situation became more pro-Russia it would be untenable for European NATO troops to remain in Ukraine. This would be a disaster for Europe.
If Europe refused to commit troops then Trump can blame Europe for failing to underwrite peace. This would also be a disaster for Europe.
If Europe attempts to militarily support Ukraine despite efforts to bring about a peace deal then Trump can ramp up economic sanctions against Europe. This would also be a disaster for Europe.
If Ukraine chooses to fight on then Putin can carry on the war knowing Ukraine cannot access many of the weapons it needs to survive. In this situation there is an increased chance Ukraine falls. This would also be a disaster for Europe.
But all of them come back to Trump being on the verge of goring European NATO on these horns.
Trump could be about to make a 1938 Munich Agreement. Europe might then be forced to make a Chamberlain August 1939 guarantee that could well be viewed by Putin - just as surely he viewed the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances - as incredible ...
Any realistic guarantee of Ukrainian independence would be at least tantamount to NATO membership, which hillbilly Vance says is “unrealistic”. Sometimes I am ashamed to be an American.
Oh, grow up. There’s no desire in NATO to bring Ukraine into the alliance. But you ignore that reality for the sake of some adolescent name calling. And why has it come to this? As I wrote, thanks to the Biden Administration’s endless dithering. I doubt that Trump will get a peace deal, but the fact that it’s even an issue is down to Biden and his national security team.
Please go fight for what you believe in and enlisting the Ukrainian army.
Will do if you enlist in Ukrainian army.
Didn’t I tell you to get lost?
Please get lost.
After Ukraine’s failed summer offensive in 2023, Western nations lost a clear strategic vision. This absence of a coherent goal has allowed Trump’s approach to gain traction, even though it doesn’t address long-term European security concerns. Which Trump defines as no longer his problem.
The world is still an anarchy. The threat of the zero-sum game is ever-present.
That said, there is much to commend Trump peace's deal: it will force Europe to come up with a counter-offer. European leaders are meeting tomorrow, Monday 17 February.
That’s more or less the way I see it. Of course, Democrats and the Left will lambaste Trump for “abandoning Ukraine,” while memory holing the sorry tale of how Biden & Co, botched their Ukraine policy. Tough talk accompanied by hesitation and dithering got us where we are today. The possibility of handing V. Putin a decisive defeat, which was there two years ago, is gone now.
Your mention of Neville Chamberlain is apt, though I don't think there's any chance that Donald Trump will be labelled as such; Europe instead will be. I also think there's no downside for Trump to make any peace, just for Europe. Europe is in danger of getting caught on the horns of a dilemma that has Trump making peace but leaving Ukraine’s security guaranteed by Europe’s military. Europe then must decide whether to commit troops into Ukraine or abandon it.
Here are some scenarios ...
Europe commits troops. Russia might not directly attack the peacekeepers. Instead they might attempt to politically destabilise Ukraine. If Ukraine’s internal political situation became more pro-Russia it would be untenable for European NATO troops to remain in Ukraine. This would be a disaster for Europe.
If Europe refused to commit troops then Trump can blame Europe for failing to underwrite peace. This would also be a disaster for Europe.
If Europe attempts to militarily support Ukraine despite efforts to bring about a peace deal then Trump can ramp up economic sanctions against Europe. This would also be a disaster for Europe.
If Ukraine chooses to fight on then Putin can carry on the war knowing Ukraine cannot access many of the weapons it needs to survive. In this situation there is an increased chance Ukraine falls. This would also be a disaster for Europe.
But all of them come back to Trump being on the verge of goring European NATO on these horns.
Trump could be about to make a 1938 Munich Agreement. Europe might then be forced to make a Chamberlain August 1939 guarantee that could well be viewed by Putin - just as surely he viewed the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances - as incredible ...
The Team Biden trifecta: Afghanistan. Ukraine. Gaza.
Cowardice. Arrogance. Ignorance.
Pretty much. It’s as if Biden & Co. looked at bad situations and asked themselves: “How can we make them even worse?”
Any realistic guarantee of Ukrainian independence would be at least tantamount to NATO membership, which hillbilly Vance says is “unrealistic”. Sometimes I am ashamed to be an American.
Oh, grow up. There’s no desire in NATO to bring Ukraine into the alliance. But you ignore that reality for the sake of some adolescent name calling. And why has it come to this? As I wrote, thanks to the Biden Administration’s endless dithering. I doubt that Trump will get a peace deal, but the fact that it’s even an issue is down to Biden and his national security team.