Endgame Diplomacy
On President Trump's move to terminate the Russo-Ukrainian War
Democrats and progressives are wringing their hands and rending their garments over the possibility that President Trump might cut some sort of deal with V. Putin to bring the Russo-Ukrainian War to an end. And yes, it’s quite possible that such a deal would be bad for Ukraine. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said as much when he opined that the restoration to Ukraine of all the territory it lost to Russia is an “unrealistic objective.” This is very probably true, though the Secretary ought to have kept that thought to himself for the time being. The very next day, he partially walked back his comments, no doubt at the suggestion of the White House.
A peace deal that lets Putin keep all or most of his ill-gotten gains would be bad for not only for Ukraine but for the United States. V. Putin has designs on other countries besides Ukraine, some of them NATO member states, and such a deal would only whet his appetite. As the melancholy shade of Neville Chamberlain might remind Donald Trump, “peace in our time” has a way of blowing up in one’s face. But these none too cheerful reflections raise a question: Why is it that at the beginning of Trump’s second term, almost three years after the Russians stormed into Ukraine, the Russo-Ukrainian War still sputtering along? Let’s rewind the tape.
It was the Biden Administration that in 2022 committed the United States to the support of Ukraine’s defense against a vicious, unprovoked, predatory act of aggression. I fully supported President Biden’s policy, which was to provide all the aid and assistance, short of armed intervention, that Ukraine needed to defend itself and recover its lost territories. Biden, I thought, was doing the right thing, so I swallowed my distaste for the man—rendering credit where, I believed, credit was due.
I really ought to have known better.
It wasn’t long before Biden reminded the world that despite his initial tough talk, he still had the backbone of a chocolate eclair. The resolute president of February 2022 faded out; the hesitant, fearful, befuddled president of August 2021 re-emerged. How could I have forgotten Biden’s despicable Afghanistan skedaddle? How could I have imagined that this hollow man had the guts to stand up to V. Putin?
It’s thanks to Biden and his third-rate national security team that Trump has inherited the Russo-Ukrainian War. As I wrote in an article published on Substack in August 2023:
[T]he truth of the matter is that America is not doing nearly enough to bring the Russo-Ukrainian War to a successful conclusion. Sad to say, the foot-dragging and timidity of the Biden Administration are prolonging the war. Ukraine is given enough aid and support to hold its own, but not enough to capitalize on the evident weaknesses of Russia.
Right from the beginning, the Administration has been fearful that military aid supplied to Ukraine would cause “escalation.” Time and again, weapons thought to be “provocative,” e.g. long-range missiles and artillery systems capable of hitting targets on Russian soil, were withheld, only to be supplied tardily after lengthy debates between the Administration and, seemingly, itself. When one recalls that the war opened with a massive invasion of Ukraine accompanied by indiscriminate air and ground bombardment, and that Russia has been attacking targets, military and civilian, throughout Ukraine ever since, this handwringing over escalation is little short of ludicrous.
This remained true right up to the end of the Biden Administration. The former president and his advisers seemed even more terrified of victory than they were of defeat. So they hesitated. They temporized. They second-guessed themselves. And V. Putin noticed. He soon realized that a little nuclear saber rattling would cause Biden & Co. to blink. Their dithering transformed a winnable war into a bloody stalemate. President Trump is of course responsible for what happens from this point forward—but his incompetent predecessor set the table.
Both Russia and Ukraine have good reasons for seeking a way out of the impasse in which they find themselves. Russia has allowed itself to become bogged down in a costly war of attrition, suffering high casualties and equipment losses for nugatory gains. Putin’s dream of terminating Ukraine’s independence and transforming it into a Russian vassal state has come to nothing. For its part, Ukraine is suffering from pronounced war weariness, its armed forces are feeling the effects of an acute manpower crisis, and its government probably realizes that what Secretary Hegseth said is correct: Some at least of the country’s lost territories have been lost forever.
Donald Trump is the wild card. There’s no doubt that he seeks the plaudits due to a peacemaker. Fears that he’ll seek those laurels by kicking Ukraine to the curb are understandable. On the other hand, Trump surely has no desire to be the twenty-first century Neville Chamberlain. He has, if he wishes to exercise it, plenty of leverage over Russia. Vice President Vance’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymy Zelensky, characterized by the latter as “good conversations,” indicates that an immediate cutoff of US military aid to Ukraine is not in the cards. If Putin adopts an intransigent attitude, pressing for the fulfillment of his maximum demands, his best friend Donald might soon be denouncing him on Truth Social.
My own feeling at this point is that the Trump peace offensive is more likely than not to stall out.
Ukraine can accept nothing less than the return of significant chunks of the territory now occupied by Russia, along with tangible security guarantees against a renewal of Russian aggression. There’s also the question of the large number of Ukrainians, many of them children, who’ve been abducted by the Russian security forces. The Ukrainian government is sure to demand their return, and this may turn out to be the sleeper issue of the negotiations.
On the other side of the hill, the Putin regime badly needs something to show for three years of bloody combat that gave embarrassing evidence of Russia’s fall from superpower status, the ineptitude of its armed forces, and the corruption and incompetence of V. Putin’s ramshackle despotism. It will take more than the retention of this or that fragment of pilfered Ukrainian territory to justify all the death and destruction that Putin’s Stalinist pretentions have visited on Russia.
The path to a peace settlement is strewn with obstacles, and one wonders if Trump realizes this. Having set himself up in business as the Great Peacemaker, the President may find that he’s grabbed a wolf by the ears—and dare not let it go. Then what?
I’ve written numerous articles on in the Russo-Ukrainian War since its outbreak in February 2022. They may be accessed here.
After Ukraine’s failed summer offensive in 2023, Western nations lost a clear strategic vision. This absence of a coherent goal has allowed Trump’s approach to gain traction, even though it doesn’t address long-term European security concerns. Which Trump defines as no longer his problem.
The world is still an anarchy. The threat of the zero-sum game is ever-present.
That said, there is much to commend Trump peace's deal: it will force Europe to come up with a counter-offer. European leaders are meeting tomorrow, Monday 17 February.
The Team Biden trifecta: Afghanistan. Ukraine. Gaza.
Cowardice. Arrogance. Ignorance.