Thank you, Thomas. One thing that the Russian side has working for it is their "propaganda battalion" used to whittle away NATO support for Ukraine: I see that that as attrition of a different sort. NATO is of course Ukraine's lifeline, providing supply-lines for money, weaponry, intelligence, moral support -- everything except flesh-and-blood fighters and second echelon support, apart from small numbers of volunteers.
If Russian propaganda is effective by building opposition to supporting Ukraine (a la some MAGA Republican proposals), do you think it would tilt the battlefield in Russia's favor?
The activity here in favor of Putin, while annoying and generally performed in bad faith, is secondary. The real political balance is to be won or lost in Europe, especially in Germany.
Also pay close attention to how seriously Xi pursues negotiations from his side. Some people say this is Putin's potential ace in the hole; much more obvious is the embarrassment that Putin needs the Chinese to throw him a lifeline at all. It shows more plainly than anything what a third-rate loser Putin is.
Napoleon remarked to one of his generals: "Ask me for anything—but time." So diplomatic attrition might work, but it's not something that can happen overnight. Attrition, whether diplomatic or military, takes time to be effective. My view is that time is working against Russia. The longer the war goes on, the more obvious it is that Russia is a third-rate military power that can't win its war of aggression.
Thank you, Thomas. One thing that the Russian side has working for it is their "propaganda battalion" used to whittle away NATO support for Ukraine: I see that that as attrition of a different sort. NATO is of course Ukraine's lifeline, providing supply-lines for money, weaponry, intelligence, moral support -- everything except flesh-and-blood fighters and second echelon support, apart from small numbers of volunteers.
If Russian propaganda is effective by building opposition to supporting Ukraine (a la some MAGA Republican proposals), do you think it would tilt the battlefield in Russia's favor?
The activity here in favor of Putin, while annoying and generally performed in bad faith, is secondary. The real political balance is to be won or lost in Europe, especially in Germany.
Also pay close attention to how seriously Xi pursues negotiations from his side. Some people say this is Putin's potential ace in the hole; much more obvious is the embarrassment that Putin needs the Chinese to throw him a lifeline at all. It shows more plainly than anything what a third-rate loser Putin is.
Napoleon remarked to one of his generals: "Ask me for anything—but time." So diplomatic attrition might work, but it's not something that can happen overnight. Attrition, whether diplomatic or military, takes time to be effective. My view is that time is working against Russia. The longer the war goes on, the more obvious it is that Russia is a third-rate military power that can't win its war of aggression.