In what way/s is the latest Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory different from the raids performed earlier in the year? Granted those were apparently designed to probe Russian defenses and gauge the strength and timing of their reactions, but Ukraine has stated they are not planning to hold territory they have occupied. So what is the purpose of the latest incursion? Surely the RU forces will eventually decide to counterattack and use superior numbers of conscripts, missiles & glide bombs & armor to push UKR forces back across the border. What strategic purpose would that serve other than to demoralize civilians and create some unhappiness in the Kremlin?
I think the main reasons are to force Russia to redeploy and to potentially block supplies to the previous front lines. While things on the ground are certainly confused it seems that, unsurprisingly, Russia is moving troops from the Kharkiv area to repel this incursion. It also seems like Russia is making fewer artillery/air strikes elsewhere as meteriel is redirected here. If these facts continue then Ukraine will achieve some useful objectives even if it doesn't do more.
However we have also seen large drone strikes on Russian airfields which I suspect came via the Kursk territory because there are fewer (possibly no) active air defense systems on the Russian side now Ukraine has blown through the front line. Since Russia doesn't really have air defense in depth that means drones are free to fly all over the place. Presuming that continues then Russia will be forced to move critical infrastructure (i.e. glide bombs and bombers) further away from Ukraine making strikes on Ukraine itself harder. Plus glide bombs are inaccurate - much better that they miss and blow up parts of Russia than parts of Ukraine
Ukraine has launched a few large-scale drone attacks on Russian air bases in the past few days, apparently with some success. Presumably they’re trying to take preventative measures against the glide bombs and missiles.
After reading more about this, I think the rationale for invading RU may be psy-ops as much as battlefield tactics. It certainly has upset Putin, judging from his recent personnel changes - his former bodyguard now in charge of front line operations (?? I’m not that up on this stuff). Anyway, best of luck to our friends and confusion to our enemies!
In order to build up forces for a counterattack in the Kursk Obalst, the Russians will have to take forces from other sectors of the front. Their numerical superiority is not such that they can be strong enough to attack everywhere.
Then too, isn’t it better for the Ukrainians to fight on Russian soil? Let the Russians get a taste of that. I don’t think that the Ukrainians will give up ground voluntarily. Why should they? If they can establish control over a good chunk of Russian territory, that gives them some leverage if negotiations ever get going. Plus, it makes V. Putin & Co. look incompetent.
And finally, who’s to say that a Russian counterattack would succeed? The Russian Army hasn’t displayed much in the way of tactical and operation competence, has it? Maybe they’d get their clock cleaned.
Nice explanation of Citadel for the general public. I wish this was knowledge that more people had at the ready. I recall that there was a Soviet intelligence operation that allowed them to commit massive effort in preparation for Citadel. Some of your readers might benefit if you share some on that.
In what way/s is the latest Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory different from the raids performed earlier in the year? Granted those were apparently designed to probe Russian defenses and gauge the strength and timing of their reactions, but Ukraine has stated they are not planning to hold territory they have occupied. So what is the purpose of the latest incursion? Surely the RU forces will eventually decide to counterattack and use superior numbers of conscripts, missiles & glide bombs & armor to push UKR forces back across the border. What strategic purpose would that serve other than to demoralize civilians and create some unhappiness in the Kremlin?
I've written a couple of recent substacks about this. The most relevant is probably this - https://ombreolivier.substack.com/p/the-kursk-invasion?r=7yrqz
I think the main reasons are to force Russia to redeploy and to potentially block supplies to the previous front lines. While things on the ground are certainly confused it seems that, unsurprisingly, Russia is moving troops from the Kharkiv area to repel this incursion. It also seems like Russia is making fewer artillery/air strikes elsewhere as meteriel is redirected here. If these facts continue then Ukraine will achieve some useful objectives even if it doesn't do more.
However we have also seen large drone strikes on Russian airfields which I suspect came via the Kursk territory because there are fewer (possibly no) active air defense systems on the Russian side now Ukraine has blown through the front line. Since Russia doesn't really have air defense in depth that means drones are free to fly all over the place. Presuming that continues then Russia will be forced to move critical infrastructure (i.e. glide bombs and bombers) further away from Ukraine making strikes on Ukraine itself harder. Plus glide bombs are inaccurate - much better that they miss and blow up parts of Russia than parts of Ukraine
Ukraine has launched a few large-scale drone attacks on Russian air bases in the past few days, apparently with some success. Presumably they’re trying to take preventative measures against the glide bombs and missiles.
After reading more about this, I think the rationale for invading RU may be psy-ops as much as battlefield tactics. It certainly has upset Putin, judging from his recent personnel changes - his former bodyguard now in charge of front line operations (?? I’m not that up on this stuff). Anyway, best of luck to our friends and confusion to our enemies!
In order to build up forces for a counterattack in the Kursk Obalst, the Russians will have to take forces from other sectors of the front. Their numerical superiority is not such that they can be strong enough to attack everywhere.
Then too, isn’t it better for the Ukrainians to fight on Russian soil? Let the Russians get a taste of that. I don’t think that the Ukrainians will give up ground voluntarily. Why should they? If they can establish control over a good chunk of Russian territory, that gives them some leverage if negotiations ever get going. Plus, it makes V. Putin & Co. look incompetent.
And finally, who’s to say that a Russian counterattack would succeed? The Russian Army hasn’t displayed much in the way of tactical and operation competence, has it? Maybe they’d get their clock cleaned.
I'll keep my fingers crossed that the Russian push-back fizzles, and that the AFU are successful. Just hate to get my hopes up.
Nice explanation of Citadel for the general public. I wish this was knowledge that more people had at the ready. I recall that there was a Soviet intelligence operation that allowed them to commit massive effort in preparation for Citadel. Some of your readers might benefit if you share some on that.
Maybe I’ll write something about that.