And as for the managing of our expectations, I think that hinges on the public statements of Donald trump. He has his trumpian style for sure. I'm not always so crazy about it but that's who and what he is. One thing about him is I never know what he's holding back in reserve. He keeps us on a need to know basis and that's probably for the best, in my opinion. I hope that the Iranians are guessing more than I am as to what is going to be coming down the pike at them. I think they are. One question I would have is have the air forces removed or seriously degraded the ability of the Iranians to move assets around the country? Because if they have achieve that, then a targeted ground operation makes a whole lot of sense. If the American Collective doesn't believe that Iran was a few weeks or a couple of months away from having usable atomic bombs, we may as well toss in the towel. And ditto on that towel analogy if everybody's going to soil themselves when necessary ground operation produces some casualties.
For what it's worth I am of the opinion that the Catalyst for this war was the October 7th attack against Israel by the Iranian proxy, Hamas.
And understand that attack was, all or mostly all in my opinion, the handiwork of China.
The India middle east Europe economic corridor was starting to build up a head of steam. That was a threat to China's Belt Road initiative. I follow the money when I think this through.
Just as the instability in Ukraine throws sand into the gears of the East-West movement of goods to and from China and Europe, so does the current instability throughout the Middle East also throw sand into the gears of the proposed movement of goods between India and Europe via the Middle East.
At the end of the day I believe that that is the competition of interests that drives all of this horrible Madness. And do you know what? The way I see things when it comes down to it's either them or us, I say, hooray for us!
If there is a people that can't bring themselves to take that position, I simply cannot overcome their gross and pathetic stupidity.
I doubt pain alone will do it (witness WW2 Japan), but we aren't seeing chess moves (moves 2 & 3 setting up move 8).
Eliminating their power plants would (1) inconvenience their military production, & (2) drive the population to action.
We ought to be arming the people (surely we are in contact with the resistance), and we should have drones in the air targeting every concentration of government forces.
My sense is that we are relying on air power hitting military targets and leaving a lot of options unused.
Well, there is that pesky mid term election. I'm hoping things will work out. It's almost "decision time" in America. America gating immigrants holding power is horrible. And they lie so openly. Mamdani is i believe, an ethnic Persian, whose family was oligarchy in British uganda, and he gets away with pissing all over America and being deified by stupid useless 200 thou per year white young urban professionals. It's difficult to swallow.
Your second point, the one about the enemies ability to adapt / substitute, probably has a limit that once reached will make itself clearly seen. I remember an NBA playoff series back about 20 years ago or so between the Lakers and the them Seattle supersonics. The sonics played the Lakers tough but lost three consecutive close games. Before game 4 the Seattle coach who was Bernie Bickerstaff told the journalists asking him what adjustments he had for game four, Bernie Bickerstaff said there are no more adjustments to be made. Hopefully we'll soon see a point at which there are no more adjustments to be made by the jihadist Maniacs who holds sway in Iran.
All of your talking points are certainly thoughtful ones. And looking at it from afar I do not see any pretty picture. I hope that I have not been smoking hopium, but I have no guarantee that that is not the case.
Here is the latest blurb that I have culled from Gemini artificial intelligence. Gemini cites references that may or may not be worth reading. I have no idea.
(However let it be said that I do firmly believe that the AI algorithm is skewed so as to give deference to all things anti-trump and all things that are progressive leaning.
If one frames one's questions thoughtfully, I believe, one may get meaningful answers that do lean toward being factually based.)
as of July 14, 2026, following the collapse of the summer ceasefires.The core friction between Washington's claims of military decisiveness and Iran's asymmetric resilience continues to define the war, which has just re-escalated into a new phase of high-intensity strikes.🔄
Current Operational Status & Leadership ViewsThe strategic deadlock analyzed earlier has been fully validated by events on the ground over the last 48 hours:The Collapsed Deal: The Versailles/Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed on June 17, 2026, by President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has officially collapsed.
Following "alleged" Iranian drone strikes on commercial shipping, the U.S. Navy and Air Force officially reimposed the total naval blockade.Trump's Narrative of Decisiveness: Political leadership maintains the narrative of overwhelming success.
This week, President Trump asserted that Iran's conventional military capability is "gone" and its navy and air forces have been entirely destroyed by U.S.-Israeli strikes.
The Air Force's Reality: Despite Trump’s claims, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that recent U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) precision strikes against 90 coastal and air defense targets have had "no visible effect" on Iran’s immediate ability or willingness to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz.🛡️
Why the Timelines Extensively Stretched. The ongoing exchange of fire—featuring massive U.S. air raids on coastal hubs like Chabahar and Qeshm Island matched by Iranian ballistic missile counter-strikes on U.S. bases in Bahrain—proves the limits of the initial degrading timeline.
( I doubt that Iranian counter fire amounts to very much of significance. I've heard no acknowledgment of any consequential damage to us facilities in either the Middle East or the Gulf Arab states.)
Defense journal "Breaking Defense" is now openly calling the campaign "the most successful failure in US airpower history".
While the Air Force successfully executed flawless tactical missions and targeted command nodes, Iran's decentralized network of inexpensive Shahed drones and deeply buried mobile missile launchers have effectively broken the U.S. playbook of forcing a quick surrender through air superiority alone.
Military analysts emphasize that the U.S. remains caught in an "escalation trap," unable to find a decisive endpoint without committing to a massive ground assault.
From what we know about the Iran War, American air forces retain their optimism about their ability to be decisive.
They also continue to underestimate the enemy's ability to adapt/substitute.
And as in WW2, our leadership continues to be less than truthful in managing our expectations.
And as for the managing of our expectations, I think that hinges on the public statements of Donald trump. He has his trumpian style for sure. I'm not always so crazy about it but that's who and what he is. One thing about him is I never know what he's holding back in reserve. He keeps us on a need to know basis and that's probably for the best, in my opinion. I hope that the Iranians are guessing more than I am as to what is going to be coming down the pike at them. I think they are. One question I would have is have the air forces removed or seriously degraded the ability of the Iranians to move assets around the country? Because if they have achieve that, then a targeted ground operation makes a whole lot of sense. If the American Collective doesn't believe that Iran was a few weeks or a couple of months away from having usable atomic bombs, we may as well toss in the towel. And ditto on that towel analogy if everybody's going to soil themselves when necessary ground operation produces some casualties.
For what it's worth I am of the opinion that the Catalyst for this war was the October 7th attack against Israel by the Iranian proxy, Hamas.
And understand that attack was, all or mostly all in my opinion, the handiwork of China.
The India middle east Europe economic corridor was starting to build up a head of steam. That was a threat to China's Belt Road initiative. I follow the money when I think this through.
Just as the instability in Ukraine throws sand into the gears of the East-West movement of goods to and from China and Europe, so does the current instability throughout the Middle East also throw sand into the gears of the proposed movement of goods between India and Europe via the Middle East.
At the end of the day I believe that that is the competition of interests that drives all of this horrible Madness. And do you know what? The way I see things when it comes down to it's either them or us, I say, hooray for us!
If there is a people that can't bring themselves to take that position, I simply cannot overcome their gross and pathetic stupidity.
We have the ability to apply enormous pain.
I doubt pain alone will do it (witness WW2 Japan), but we aren't seeing chess moves (moves 2 & 3 setting up move 8).
Eliminating their power plants would (1) inconvenience their military production, & (2) drive the population to action.
We ought to be arming the people (surely we are in contact with the resistance), and we should have drones in the air targeting every concentration of government forces.
My sense is that we are relying on air power hitting military targets and leaving a lot of options unused.
Well, there is that pesky mid term election. I'm hoping things will work out. It's almost "decision time" in America. America gating immigrants holding power is horrible. And they lie so openly. Mamdani is i believe, an ethnic Persian, whose family was oligarchy in British uganda, and he gets away with pissing all over America and being deified by stupid useless 200 thou per year white young urban professionals. It's difficult to swallow.
Your second point, the one about the enemies ability to adapt / substitute, probably has a limit that once reached will make itself clearly seen. I remember an NBA playoff series back about 20 years ago or so between the Lakers and the them Seattle supersonics. The sonics played the Lakers tough but lost three consecutive close games. Before game 4 the Seattle coach who was Bernie Bickerstaff told the journalists asking him what adjustments he had for game four, Bernie Bickerstaff said there are no more adjustments to be made. Hopefully we'll soon see a point at which there are no more adjustments to be made by the jihadist Maniacs who holds sway in Iran.
All of your talking points are certainly thoughtful ones. And looking at it from afar I do not see any pretty picture. I hope that I have not been smoking hopium, but I have no guarantee that that is not the case.
Here is the latest blurb that I have culled from Gemini artificial intelligence. Gemini cites references that may or may not be worth reading. I have no idea.
(However let it be said that I do firmly believe that the AI algorithm is skewed so as to give deference to all things anti-trump and all things that are progressive leaning.
If one frames one's questions thoughtfully, I believe, one may get meaningful answers that do lean toward being factually based.)
as of July 14, 2026, following the collapse of the summer ceasefires.The core friction between Washington's claims of military decisiveness and Iran's asymmetric resilience continues to define the war, which has just re-escalated into a new phase of high-intensity strikes.🔄
Current Operational Status & Leadership ViewsThe strategic deadlock analyzed earlier has been fully validated by events on the ground over the last 48 hours:The Collapsed Deal: The Versailles/Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed on June 17, 2026, by President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has officially collapsed.
Following "alleged" Iranian drone strikes on commercial shipping, the U.S. Navy and Air Force officially reimposed the total naval blockade.Trump's Narrative of Decisiveness: Political leadership maintains the narrative of overwhelming success.
This week, President Trump asserted that Iran's conventional military capability is "gone" and its navy and air forces have been entirely destroyed by U.S.-Israeli strikes.
The Air Force's Reality: Despite Trump’s claims, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that recent U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) precision strikes against 90 coastal and air defense targets have had "no visible effect" on Iran’s immediate ability or willingness to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz.🛡️
Why the Timelines Extensively Stretched. The ongoing exchange of fire—featuring massive U.S. air raids on coastal hubs like Chabahar and Qeshm Island matched by Iranian ballistic missile counter-strikes on U.S. bases in Bahrain—proves the limits of the initial degrading timeline.
( I doubt that Iranian counter fire amounts to very much of significance. I've heard no acknowledgment of any consequential damage to us facilities in either the Middle East or the Gulf Arab states.)
Defense journal "Breaking Defense" is now openly calling the campaign "the most successful failure in US airpower history".
While the Air Force successfully executed flawless tactical missions and targeted command nodes, Iran's decentralized network of inexpensive Shahed drones and deeply buried mobile missile launchers have effectively broken the U.S. playbook of forcing a quick surrender through air superiority alone.
Military analysts emphasize that the U.S. remains caught in an "escalation trap," unable to find a decisive endpoint without committing to a massive ground assault.