Let's stipulate that your excellent discussion of the shortcomings of the Russian Army are correct and that the historical analogies are apt. Let's also stipulate that Putin is a thug, albeit smart and patient.
All the above notwithstanding this is a war that was in large part caused by machinations and maneuvers of the West beginning at least 10 years ago with the overthrow of a Russia sympathetic democratically elected head of state in the Ukraine in the form of a color revolution. And the eastward expansion of NATO to Russia's doorstep, despite prior assurances to the contrary has also been a significant provocation. Furthermore, Ukraine is also a massively corrupt country with no serious commitment or history to real democratic reforms, that fields actual Nazis in battle. And the Ukrainians were attacking and killing the Russian speaking population in the Eastern parts of the country for years before Putin invaded. Zelensky is not a good guy.
There are no good guys in this war. There are innocent victims, but the governments involved, including ours have created a disaster for the Ukrainian people and put us on a path to a serious and perhaps nuclear confrontation with the Russians. What is the end game on our side? Why are we doing this? It's not to preserve democracy in a country with which we have no standing treaties or even a strategic interest. It's not to preserve democracy in a country with no sustained history of democracy outside our sphere of interest. There's a subtext here that our regime is concealing. I don't know exactly what it is, but I"m sure it's there.
Putin is not becoming undone by this war. His economy is stronger. He is now allied with China more than ever. His popularity at home is high. Ukraine can't win the war. I don't care how bad the Russian troops are. Ukraine won't win. Ukraine has no disciplined military force. They don't have enough of the right equipment and the equipment they have is not up to the task. Yes they can frustrate the Russians for a time. But at best this is a stalemate. Somebody already tried to sue for peace and the NATO clowns wouldn't let them. They should let them. Putin keeps the East or he doesn't. Nobody actually cares. Then people can stop dying to satisfy the war mongers.
Unfortunately, you are wrong. Ukraine was doomed from the moment when imperial forces seized power in Russia and began to prepare the revival of the Soviet Union, and this was back in the second half of the 90s.
Putin was preparing to seize Ukraine long before the seizure of Crimea, and American interference in Ukrainian affairs plays no role.
You overestimate the role of the United States in this game.
The main idea and reason for the conflict is Ukraine's unwillingness to remain a vassal of Russia and its desire for a European model of development. Everything bad that you see in Ukraine is the legacy of Russian expansion and influence. Russia has already entangled the Ukrainian economy like an octopus, introduced its puppet politicians, encouraged unprecedented corruption that was destroying statehood, but Putin made his first miscalculation in 2014. He did not take into account that Ukrainians are not genetic slaves like Russians.
And the second miscalculation was in 2022, when he did not take into account that Ukrainians would fight for their country.
You are wrong that both sides are wrong. There is evil and good here, and the rest is Russian propaganda that has been working in this direction for 20 years.
Let's stipulate that your excellent discussion of the shortcomings of the Russian Army are correct and that the historical analogies are apt. Let's also stipulate that Putin is a thug, albeit smart and patient.
All the above notwithstanding this is a war that was in large part caused by machinations and maneuvers of the West beginning at least 10 years ago with the overthrow of a Russia sympathetic democratically elected head of state in the Ukraine in the form of a color revolution. And the eastward expansion of NATO to Russia's doorstep, despite prior assurances to the contrary has also been a significant provocation. Furthermore, Ukraine is also a massively corrupt country with no serious commitment or history to real democratic reforms, that fields actual Nazis in battle. And the Ukrainians were attacking and killing the Russian speaking population in the Eastern parts of the country for years before Putin invaded. Zelensky is not a good guy.
There are no good guys in this war. There are innocent victims, but the governments involved, including ours have created a disaster for the Ukrainian people and put us on a path to a serious and perhaps nuclear confrontation with the Russians. What is the end game on our side? Why are we doing this? It's not to preserve democracy in a country with which we have no standing treaties or even a strategic interest. It's not to preserve democracy in a country with no sustained history of democracy outside our sphere of interest. There's a subtext here that our regime is concealing. I don't know exactly what it is, but I"m sure it's there.
Putin is not becoming undone by this war. His economy is stronger. He is now allied with China more than ever. His popularity at home is high. Ukraine can't win the war. I don't care how bad the Russian troops are. Ukraine won't win. Ukraine has no disciplined military force. They don't have enough of the right equipment and the equipment they have is not up to the task. Yes they can frustrate the Russians for a time. But at best this is a stalemate. Somebody already tried to sue for peace and the NATO clowns wouldn't let them. They should let them. Putin keeps the East or he doesn't. Nobody actually cares. Then people can stop dying to satisfy the war mongers.
Unfortunately, you are wrong. Ukraine was doomed from the moment when imperial forces seized power in Russia and began to prepare the revival of the Soviet Union, and this was back in the second half of the 90s.
Putin was preparing to seize Ukraine long before the seizure of Crimea, and American interference in Ukrainian affairs plays no role.
You overestimate the role of the United States in this game.
The main idea and reason for the conflict is Ukraine's unwillingness to remain a vassal of Russia and its desire for a European model of development. Everything bad that you see in Ukraine is the legacy of Russian expansion and influence. Russia has already entangled the Ukrainian economy like an octopus, introduced its puppet politicians, encouraged unprecedented corruption that was destroying statehood, but Putin made his first miscalculation in 2014. He did not take into account that Ukrainians are not genetic slaves like Russians.
And the second miscalculation was in 2022, when he did not take into account that Ukrainians would fight for their country.
You are wrong that both sides are wrong. There is evil and good here, and the rest is Russian propaganda that has been working in this direction for 20 years.
Thank you, Thomas. I really enjoyed this.
And thank you for reading it.
Also a reminder that in 1904, the same poor leadership and inadequate logistics led to a Russian defeat against a smaller adversary.
And again there, the experts were wrong (or at least the western experts; the Japanese experts were pretty good).
Yes, that’s another good example. And so is the first phase of the Nazi-Soviet War.