Thomas, my view about this is that sadly, the United States is experiencing a secular decline. If Harris wins, nothing terrible will happen in the short run. Her Administration will continue most of the of the failed policies of the Biden Administration which will slowly but surely sap American strength and economic vitality.
The real losers in the short term will be Ukraine and Israel. Harris has no answers for Ukraine. Russia is wining this war and short of the introduction of NATO troops into the conflict, (which won't happen) that is unlikely to change. Ukraine wont be recapturing Crimea and it won't be joining NATO. Had Ukraine acquiesced to the settlement at the beginning of the war that Biden nixed, at least it would have kept most of the Donbas with some special privileges for the region’s Russian speakers. Now most of the Donbas is gone for good. There are really only two possibilities; either Ukraine sues for peace or before the end of a Harris Administration, Russian troops will be in Oddesa and maybe Kyiv.
The thought of a President Harris negotiating Ukraine’s fate with President Putin should scare Ukraine’s supporters to death. The best outcome Ukraine can achieve is “Finlandization” and buffer state status with the western part of the country permitted to join the EU but not NATO.
Israel will suffer under a Harris Administration as well. At least Biden had a longstanding affinity for Israel; he proudly labels himself a Zionist. Harris is firmly entrenched in the Obama wing of the Democratic Party that views Israel as a thorn in its side. Harris is far more likely than Biden to refuse to support Israel in the Security Council and to implement selective arms embargoes against Israel. If Harris wins, it will be more critical than ever that Netanyahu remains as Prime Minister. There is no other Israeli politician with the skills and grit required to manage relations with a hostile American President.
If Trump wins, Ukraine and Israel will be in better shape. Trump is much more likely than Harris to negotiate the best deal for Ukraine than it can get under the circumstances. He won't badger the Israelis into making unwise concessions that sacrifice their security.
Ironically, if Trump wins we are far more likely to see a ceasefire with Hamas and Hezbollah. He will want fighting to end before he takes office. Netanyahu will be willing to stop fighting to guarantee Trump’s support over the long run. He will trust that Trump will be there for Israel if push comes to shove.
If Harris wins, Netanyahu won’t agree to a ceasefire. He will understand that he needs to finish the job of destroying Hamas and Hezbollah before a hostile Harris Administration gets its sea legs. Netanyahu will know that Israel has four years ahead of it with a hostile American President and he won't want to show deference to that President so early on in their relationship. Netanyahu is far smarter and more experienced and capable than Hartis. As long as he's Prime Minister, Israel will be fine. If he's replaced by Gantz or Lapid, Israel will be in serious jeopardy.
If Trump wins, domestically we are in for a mess. His opponents hate him with an almost unquenchable hostility. That hostility will insure that the comity necessary for domestic tranquility will be impossible to achieve. A Trump victory guarantees four years of political warfare.
On the international front, Trump will do much better. Our European allies are led by feckless and incompetent leaders. Starmer, Macron, Scholz and Trudeau are not only befuddled, they're despised by many if not most of their own citizens. The only European leader with an ounce of masculinity is the very feminine Prime Minister of Italy, Giorgia Meloni.
Its remarkable how the military capabilities of our NATO partners have deteriorated since Biden’s election. With Harris as President nothing will change; in fact our NATO partners are likely to continue their race to military irrelevancy. If Trump wins, at least there’s a chance that he can badger them into beefing up their capabilities. Their fear of Trump abandoning NATO just might scare these so-called allies into doing what it takes to pursue their self-defense. Trump would have far less incentive to abandon NATO if our allies contributed to our common defense instead of behaving like freeloaders.
Ultimately someone needs to ask why American power is spiraling downward. Personally, I blame the neos; the neoconservatives and the neoliberals who've dominated American politics since at least the Clinton Administration.
The neoconservatives have bungled us into one war after the next; we always lose those wars. We wasted trillions of dollars fighting to bring democracy to Iraq and Afghanistan. I volunteer for an organization called the Tunnel to Towers Foundation. They do great work. One program that I am particularly familiar with is their effort to provide homes for triple and quadruple amputees who lost limbs in Iraq and Afghanistan. The injuries that these young men (and a few young women) experienced are truly horrific. For many of them, their mental anguish is as bad or worse. When I speak to them, they mostly know that their sacrifice accomplished nothing. If they bring up politics at all, they all say they're voting for Trump. Given the nature of their infirmities, the mere act of voting is a challenge.
Not only was the money for the Afghanistan and Iraq wars wasted but we failed miserably. Its looking right now like our proxy war in Ukraine is headed for failure as well.
Neoliberal financial and economic policy has failed as miserably as neoconservative foreign policy. Huge swaths of our nation have been deindustrislized. Opiod addiction is through the roof. The possibility of buying a first home is little more than a fiction for young Americans. Eggs are barely affordable in the supermarket. Our country is overrun by unvetted illegal aliens. At best, these migrants drive down the wages for the American working class. At worst, we’ve admitted fentanyl smugglers murderers and potentially terrorist sleeper cells. Neither political party alone allowed all of this to happen. It’s the Uniparty that's to blame.
On a personal note, Thomas, your blog is terrific. I subscribe to many substacks; yours is amongst the best written and most interesting. You should charge for a subscription; it is well worth paying for.
One of the wisest contemporary political commentators working today is Walter Russell Mead. He has a very interesting essay up in Tablet Magazine that explains why things have deteriorated. I recommend it to you. See,
You're probably right that Trump would be better than Harris on Israel. Ukraine, however, not so much. Trump would be seeking plaudits for ending a "forever war," and he wouldn't be choosy about how it ends. He wouldn't be in a position to put pressure on Putin, would he? So he'd pressure Ukraine into making all the real concessions.
On economic policy and the related issue of border security I agree with you for the most part.
My wife and I support the Tunnels to Towers organization. Ours is a military family: My younger daughter and her husband are veterans of Afghanistan and Iraq respectively. Extending a helping hand to today's young veterans, especially those who've made so grievous a sacrifice as you describe, is the sacred obligation of all Americans, but especially of those of us who've worn the uniform in times past.
Thanks for the kind comment on "Un-Woke in Indiana"—and believe me when I say that I appreciate my readers. What's any writer without them?
I'm very happy to hear that you are familiar with and support the Tunnel to Towers Foundation. The founder and president of the organization, Frank Siller, is a friend of mine. For your readers who are unfamiliar with the organization it does great work.
Frank Siller’s brother, Stephen, was a New York City fireman. On September 11, 2001 he had taken a vacation day to go fishing in upstate New York. While driving to his fishing spot, he heard on the radio that planes had crashed into the World Trade Center. He immediately headed home to Brooklyn to collect his equipment and join his squad at the site of the disaster. To get from Brooklyn to the World Trade Center site, you have to traverse the East River through the Brooklyn Battery Tunnel. When he arrived at the Tunnel he discovered that like all bridges and tunnels in New York City that day, it had been closed. While he wasn't permitted to drive through the tunnel, the police officers guarding the entrance permitted him to traverse the tunnel on foot. He ran through the tunnel carrying all of his equipment and joined his men at the disaster site. Sadly he perished when the buildings collapsed.
To honor his brothers heroism, Frank Siller established the Tunnel to Towers Foundation. Their goal was to provide homes to triple amputee and quadraplegic veterans who survived the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Amputees as seriously injured as these never survived previous wars but thanks to advanced surgical techniques now they often do.
The mental and physical challenges these warriors face upon returning home are almost too much for those of us who have never fought to imagine. Its hard to navigate even the simplest aspects of life without arms and legs. The Foundation designs and builds homes with the special accommodations necessary for the injured young men to live as independently as possible. The organization purchases the property on which the homes are built and pays the property taxes. Everything is provide free of charge to the injured veterans. I have met with these men as they were being presented with their new homes. There's no way I can describe the look in their eyes as they entered their homes.
Sadly, all too often this wonderful gesture isn't enough. Triple and quadruple amputees more often than not are unable to enjoy sexual relations. Many times their wives and girlfriends can't face the prospect of what a life with these men is likey to mean. Too often these men end up living in their new homes with their moms; its not exactly what young men in their 20s typically aspire to. I know one veteran in particular who attempted to commit suicide; thankfully he failed. Afterwards he commented that he couldn't even commit suicide properly. Its heartbreaking.
The Tunnel to Towers Foundation has now expanded its work to support the families of firemen and police officers who die in the line of duty. The Foundation pays off the mortgages of these first responders so their wives and children can live mortgage free.
The Foundation raises money in several ways. Every year on or around September 11th they sponsor a run through the Brooklyn Battery Tunnel which recapitulates the run that Frank’s brother did in 2001. The event raises millions of dollars. They also raise money from major donors.
One of their most generous donors was Bernie Marcus, the founder and long time CEO of Home Depot. Bernie donated tens of millions of dollars to the Foundation and even more importantly, Home Depot donated much of the special accessories needed to make the homes usable by the injured veterans. I mention this because Bernie Marcus died today at the age of 95. He was one of Trump’s major supporters. May his memory be a blessing.
Anyone who wants to learn more about the Tunnel to Towers Foundation can go here,
Yes, I have some familiarity with the T2T backstory. And this inspires me to provide a T2T recommendation and link on every article I publish here, going forward.
Thomas, in the past year you have posted many essays critical of the Biden Administration and Democrats in general, and I disagreed with a lot of that commentary. However I do agree with one point -- that America's ability to deter aggression in various theaters is being sorely tested, and our next administration will need to refocus its priorities towards our defense capabilities.
The capabilities of the US and its alliances are being tested by "terrorist" entities (not my preferred wording, but not sure what would be apt to describe Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis) state adversaries -- the 'Big Leagues' consisting of Russia and China, as well as the 'Minors' like North Korea & Iran). American military power is being stretched thin, perhaps even hollowed out to some extent, and needs both revitalization and expansion.
Preparing for the next war is probably the best way to prevent it from happening, but paying for it is another knotty problem. Are politicians able to break away from their La-La Land promises of ever lower taxation in favor of investing in our defense structure -- including making our income tax structure more effective in taxing the streams of cash flowing into bank accounts of billionaires of all stripes (though Elon Musk gets the dubious honor of being the bull's-eye of that particular class) -- or will we be stuck with escalating deficits stretching into eternity?
You see part of the problem. But you should disabuse yourself of the notion that the country can tax its way out of the fiscal mess it’s in. As mentioned in my article, I think that tax increases are part of the solution. But only a part, and not the most important part. A $2 trillion annual deficit will never be reduced by taxing “millionaires and billionaires.” On that score Harris is simply lying. Tax increases have to be broadly based. And they have to be coupled with serious entitlement reform. Failing that, entitlement spending will claim an ever-increasing share of the federal government’s revenue, require more and more borrowing, and eventually crush the finances of the federal government. That’s the reality. And unless something is done soon, it will become impossible to increase defense spending.
I hear what you’re saying. But I think Trump will be better.
Trump and also a miracle.
Nikki Haley said that she would reform social security and people wouldn’t vote for her because of it.
See also the reaction to Romney's infamous 47% remark.
Right.
All the same, it has to be done.
Agreed
Thomas, my view about this is that sadly, the United States is experiencing a secular decline. If Harris wins, nothing terrible will happen in the short run. Her Administration will continue most of the of the failed policies of the Biden Administration which will slowly but surely sap American strength and economic vitality.
The real losers in the short term will be Ukraine and Israel. Harris has no answers for Ukraine. Russia is wining this war and short of the introduction of NATO troops into the conflict, (which won't happen) that is unlikely to change. Ukraine wont be recapturing Crimea and it won't be joining NATO. Had Ukraine acquiesced to the settlement at the beginning of the war that Biden nixed, at least it would have kept most of the Donbas with some special privileges for the region’s Russian speakers. Now most of the Donbas is gone for good. There are really only two possibilities; either Ukraine sues for peace or before the end of a Harris Administration, Russian troops will be in Oddesa and maybe Kyiv.
The thought of a President Harris negotiating Ukraine’s fate with President Putin should scare Ukraine’s supporters to death. The best outcome Ukraine can achieve is “Finlandization” and buffer state status with the western part of the country permitted to join the EU but not NATO.
Israel will suffer under a Harris Administration as well. At least Biden had a longstanding affinity for Israel; he proudly labels himself a Zionist. Harris is firmly entrenched in the Obama wing of the Democratic Party that views Israel as a thorn in its side. Harris is far more likely than Biden to refuse to support Israel in the Security Council and to implement selective arms embargoes against Israel. If Harris wins, it will be more critical than ever that Netanyahu remains as Prime Minister. There is no other Israeli politician with the skills and grit required to manage relations with a hostile American President.
If Trump wins, Ukraine and Israel will be in better shape. Trump is much more likely than Harris to negotiate the best deal for Ukraine than it can get under the circumstances. He won't badger the Israelis into making unwise concessions that sacrifice their security.
Ironically, if Trump wins we are far more likely to see a ceasefire with Hamas and Hezbollah. He will want fighting to end before he takes office. Netanyahu will be willing to stop fighting to guarantee Trump’s support over the long run. He will trust that Trump will be there for Israel if push comes to shove.
If Harris wins, Netanyahu won’t agree to a ceasefire. He will understand that he needs to finish the job of destroying Hamas and Hezbollah before a hostile Harris Administration gets its sea legs. Netanyahu will know that Israel has four years ahead of it with a hostile American President and he won't want to show deference to that President so early on in their relationship. Netanyahu is far smarter and more experienced and capable than Hartis. As long as he's Prime Minister, Israel will be fine. If he's replaced by Gantz or Lapid, Israel will be in serious jeopardy.
If Trump wins, domestically we are in for a mess. His opponents hate him with an almost unquenchable hostility. That hostility will insure that the comity necessary for domestic tranquility will be impossible to achieve. A Trump victory guarantees four years of political warfare.
On the international front, Trump will do much better. Our European allies are led by feckless and incompetent leaders. Starmer, Macron, Scholz and Trudeau are not only befuddled, they're despised by many if not most of their own citizens. The only European leader with an ounce of masculinity is the very feminine Prime Minister of Italy, Giorgia Meloni.
Its remarkable how the military capabilities of our NATO partners have deteriorated since Biden’s election. With Harris as President nothing will change; in fact our NATO partners are likely to continue their race to military irrelevancy. If Trump wins, at least there’s a chance that he can badger them into beefing up their capabilities. Their fear of Trump abandoning NATO just might scare these so-called allies into doing what it takes to pursue their self-defense. Trump would have far less incentive to abandon NATO if our allies contributed to our common defense instead of behaving like freeloaders.
Ultimately someone needs to ask why American power is spiraling downward. Personally, I blame the neos; the neoconservatives and the neoliberals who've dominated American politics since at least the Clinton Administration.
The neoconservatives have bungled us into one war after the next; we always lose those wars. We wasted trillions of dollars fighting to bring democracy to Iraq and Afghanistan. I volunteer for an organization called the Tunnel to Towers Foundation. They do great work. One program that I am particularly familiar with is their effort to provide homes for triple and quadruple amputees who lost limbs in Iraq and Afghanistan. The injuries that these young men (and a few young women) experienced are truly horrific. For many of them, their mental anguish is as bad or worse. When I speak to them, they mostly know that their sacrifice accomplished nothing. If they bring up politics at all, they all say they're voting for Trump. Given the nature of their infirmities, the mere act of voting is a challenge.
Not only was the money for the Afghanistan and Iraq wars wasted but we failed miserably. Its looking right now like our proxy war in Ukraine is headed for failure as well.
Neoliberal financial and economic policy has failed as miserably as neoconservative foreign policy. Huge swaths of our nation have been deindustrislized. Opiod addiction is through the roof. The possibility of buying a first home is little more than a fiction for young Americans. Eggs are barely affordable in the supermarket. Our country is overrun by unvetted illegal aliens. At best, these migrants drive down the wages for the American working class. At worst, we’ve admitted fentanyl smugglers murderers and potentially terrorist sleeper cells. Neither political party alone allowed all of this to happen. It’s the Uniparty that's to blame.
On a personal note, Thomas, your blog is terrific. I subscribe to many substacks; yours is amongst the best written and most interesting. You should charge for a subscription; it is well worth paying for.
One of the wisest contemporary political commentators working today is Walter Russell Mead. He has a very interesting essay up in Tablet Magazine that explains why things have deteriorated. I recommend it to you. See,
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/america-crisis-leadership-walter-russell-mead
You're probably right that Trump would be better than Harris on Israel. Ukraine, however, not so much. Trump would be seeking plaudits for ending a "forever war," and he wouldn't be choosy about how it ends. He wouldn't be in a position to put pressure on Putin, would he? So he'd pressure Ukraine into making all the real concessions.
On economic policy and the related issue of border security I agree with you for the most part.
My wife and I support the Tunnels to Towers organization. Ours is a military family: My younger daughter and her husband are veterans of Afghanistan and Iraq respectively. Extending a helping hand to today's young veterans, especially those who've made so grievous a sacrifice as you describe, is the sacred obligation of all Americans, but especially of those of us who've worn the uniform in times past.
Thanks for the kind comment on "Un-Woke in Indiana"—and believe me when I say that I appreciate my readers. What's any writer without them?
I'm very happy to hear that you are familiar with and support the Tunnel to Towers Foundation. The founder and president of the organization, Frank Siller, is a friend of mine. For your readers who are unfamiliar with the organization it does great work.
Frank Siller’s brother, Stephen, was a New York City fireman. On September 11, 2001 he had taken a vacation day to go fishing in upstate New York. While driving to his fishing spot, he heard on the radio that planes had crashed into the World Trade Center. He immediately headed home to Brooklyn to collect his equipment and join his squad at the site of the disaster. To get from Brooklyn to the World Trade Center site, you have to traverse the East River through the Brooklyn Battery Tunnel. When he arrived at the Tunnel he discovered that like all bridges and tunnels in New York City that day, it had been closed. While he wasn't permitted to drive through the tunnel, the police officers guarding the entrance permitted him to traverse the tunnel on foot. He ran through the tunnel carrying all of his equipment and joined his men at the disaster site. Sadly he perished when the buildings collapsed.
To honor his brothers heroism, Frank Siller established the Tunnel to Towers Foundation. Their goal was to provide homes to triple amputee and quadraplegic veterans who survived the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Amputees as seriously injured as these never survived previous wars but thanks to advanced surgical techniques now they often do.
The mental and physical challenges these warriors face upon returning home are almost too much for those of us who have never fought to imagine. Its hard to navigate even the simplest aspects of life without arms and legs. The Foundation designs and builds homes with the special accommodations necessary for the injured young men to live as independently as possible. The organization purchases the property on which the homes are built and pays the property taxes. Everything is provide free of charge to the injured veterans. I have met with these men as they were being presented with their new homes. There's no way I can describe the look in their eyes as they entered their homes.
Sadly, all too often this wonderful gesture isn't enough. Triple and quadruple amputees more often than not are unable to enjoy sexual relations. Many times their wives and girlfriends can't face the prospect of what a life with these men is likey to mean. Too often these men end up living in their new homes with their moms; its not exactly what young men in their 20s typically aspire to. I know one veteran in particular who attempted to commit suicide; thankfully he failed. Afterwards he commented that he couldn't even commit suicide properly. Its heartbreaking.
The Tunnel to Towers Foundation has now expanded its work to support the families of firemen and police officers who die in the line of duty. The Foundation pays off the mortgages of these first responders so their wives and children can live mortgage free.
The Foundation raises money in several ways. Every year on or around September 11th they sponsor a run through the Brooklyn Battery Tunnel which recapitulates the run that Frank’s brother did in 2001. The event raises millions of dollars. They also raise money from major donors.
One of their most generous donors was Bernie Marcus, the founder and long time CEO of Home Depot. Bernie donated tens of millions of dollars to the Foundation and even more importantly, Home Depot donated much of the special accessories needed to make the homes usable by the injured veterans. I mention this because Bernie Marcus died today at the age of 95. He was one of Trump’s major supporters. May his memory be a blessing.
Anyone who wants to learn more about the Tunnel to Towers Foundation can go here,
https://t2t.org/?utm_source=sav&utm_medium=google&utm_campaign=search&gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAABOVbuaOY2EiRsrljGJ8WPe5jyfJC
Yes, I have some familiarity with the T2T backstory. And this inspires me to provide a T2T recommendation and link on every article I publish here, going forward.
Thomas, in the past year you have posted many essays critical of the Biden Administration and Democrats in general, and I disagreed with a lot of that commentary. However I do agree with one point -- that America's ability to deter aggression in various theaters is being sorely tested, and our next administration will need to refocus its priorities towards our defense capabilities.
The capabilities of the US and its alliances are being tested by "terrorist" entities (not my preferred wording, but not sure what would be apt to describe Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis) state adversaries -- the 'Big Leagues' consisting of Russia and China, as well as the 'Minors' like North Korea & Iran). American military power is being stretched thin, perhaps even hollowed out to some extent, and needs both revitalization and expansion.
Preparing for the next war is probably the best way to prevent it from happening, but paying for it is another knotty problem. Are politicians able to break away from their La-La Land promises of ever lower taxation in favor of investing in our defense structure -- including making our income tax structure more effective in taxing the streams of cash flowing into bank accounts of billionaires of all stripes (though Elon Musk gets the dubious honor of being the bull's-eye of that particular class) -- or will we be stuck with escalating deficits stretching into eternity?
You see part of the problem. But you should disabuse yourself of the notion that the country can tax its way out of the fiscal mess it’s in. As mentioned in my article, I think that tax increases are part of the solution. But only a part, and not the most important part. A $2 trillion annual deficit will never be reduced by taxing “millionaires and billionaires.” On that score Harris is simply lying. Tax increases have to be broadly based. And they have to be coupled with serious entitlement reform. Failing that, entitlement spending will claim an ever-increasing share of the federal government’s revenue, require more and more borrowing, and eventually crush the finances of the federal government. That’s the reality. And unless something is done soon, it will become impossible to increase defense spending.