Making Peace by Blowing Smoke
Reflections on Donald Trump's not-so-excellent Ukrainian adventure
Just as the Resistance should be ashamed of itself for promoting the myth of Joe Biden, savior of “our democracy” and second coming of FDR, MAGA loyalists should be ashamed of themselves for embracing the myth of Trump the Peacemaker.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but the President was slinging bullshit when he bombastically declared that the Russo-Ukrainian War would never have happened if he was still president in February 2022. Maybe, but probably not. He was blowing smoke when he promised that if reelected in 2024, he’d end the war on day one of his second term. His big talk about the amazing deal-making skills he’d deploy to forge a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine was nothing but hot air.
In reality, Trump has demonstrated not the slightest understanding of the issue. He has no plan for peace, no settled negotiating strategy. He’s simply winging it. In his ignorance and hubris, Trump imagined that he could cajole, nag and bully the belligerents into making peace. Putin came in for the cajoling; the nagging and bullying were reserved for President Zelensky of Ukraine.
Putin knew his man. He pocketed every concession from Trump while offering nothing in return, secure in the knowledge that the American president would respond by putting pressure on Ukraine. Trump’s increasingly desperate desire to make good on his promise to end the war enabled Putin to transform America into Russia’s de facto ally. Trump ran around saying that the war was stupid and the killing had to stop, as if arguments like that would impress the Russian despot. He complained about Zelensky’s supposed intransigence while studiously ignoring the fact that Putin was giving him and America the middle finger.
It was a pathetic spectacle, whose culmination was a disgraceful scene in the Oval Office on February 28, with Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance denouncing Zelensky for his stubbornness and ingratitude. Vance, a natcon isolationist who has said that he doesn’t give a damn about Ukraine, knew what he was doing. But Trump, I suspect, was merely venting his anger and frustration over the collapse of his misbegotten peace offensive.
Now, confronted with the undeniable fact that Vladimir Putin has absolutely no interest in a deal to end the Russo-Ukrainian War, Donald Trump says that the Russian despot must have gone crazy. He’s no longer the V. Putin that the President used to know. And he’d better mend his ways—because President Peacemaker is getting fed up!
Given Trump’s record of appeasement, Putin is hardly likely to be impressed by such belated and petulant threats.
It’s true that Barack Obama also embraced a policy of appeasement towards Russia: Recall his ineffectual tut-tutting over Putin’s seizure of Crimea in 2024. And Joe Biden, despite his tough talk, proved unwilling do what was necessary to bring the war to an end on terms favorable to Ukraine and the West. It’s thanks to them that Trump has inherited the problem. But he’s bungling it, just as they did—and making matters even worse.
One of Putin’s objectives in the present war is to undermine NATO by creating discord between America and its European allies. Trump, it must be said, has been happy to oblige. His constant complaining about NATO, his claims that the alliance is just a rip-off benefitting Europe at America’s expense, his false assertions that America is footing the bill for aid to Ukraine while the Europeans do nothing, have indeed driven a wedge between the US and Europe. To be fair, the President had a point during his first term when he said that Europe was not bearing its fair share of the NATO defense burden. He exaggerated the problem, his rhetoric was characteristically intemperate, but he wasn’t wrong. And back then, his complaints had some positive effects.
But today, such complaints are counterproductive if not dangerous. With a major ground war raging in Europe, the restoration and preservation of peace depends on NATO unity. Strength united is stronger. During the Cold War, despite various stresses and strains, NATO’s united strength preserved peace through deterrence. Trump, alas, has done much to persuade potential aggressors around the world that deterrence might no longer be operative. Putin’s ambitions begin but don’t end with the subjugation of Ukraine. He aspires to restore the defunct Soviet domination of eastern Europe, and Donald Trump has been working hard to assure him that America could live with that.
The natcon isolationists who wield such influence in the second Trump Administration argue that the fate of countries far away, inhabited by people of whom we know little, is a matter of indifference to America. J.D. Vance surely does not give a damn about Estonia or Poland. Tucker Carlson is V. Putin’s good buddy. Trump’s narcissism prevents him from viewing any issue through the lens of national interest. In this the present-day appeasers differ from those of the 1930s. The latters’ policies were based on plausible but false premises; they were motivated by searing memories of a civilizational catastrophe—the Great War. The natcon isolationists rely on fake history, false narratives, magical thinking and, in the case of the American president, delusions arising from ego and hubris.
President Donald J. Trump styles himself as a tough guy, a canny negotiator, a leader who takes no crap from anyone. President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin begs to differ.
I supported Trump in much of what he is doing (and still do), but Ukraine is a huge failure.
Time for Trump to pivot (he can call the pivot anything he wants), but his efforts have failed.
The survival of Ukraine is going to be the litmus test of the west.
Still time (but getting very short) for Trump to redeem himself.
I do think that Putin might not have invaded if Trump were president because Trump is unpredictable. Adds an extant cost. Putin was virtually guaranteed that Biden would do nothing. With Trump it was a gamble.