Part of the problem is that tax cuts really are a form of spending at this point, so long as we don’t make cuts to the budget. Tax cuts lead us to borrow more to fund them and thus lead to more spending, as the deficit widens and the debt balloons. We are going to fiscal hell in a handbasket. With either Trump or Harris over the next two or three years, a shock is going to happen and America is going to lose its status as the world’s most trusted borrower. Inflation is going to rise suddenly and so will interest rates. The political dysfunction is going to be worse for buyer’s of our currency. Whoever’s in power might spend more just as bread and circuses for the people. And we’re on a fast track to becoming a South American country in this sense. And I’m not sure what the Fed can do with merely raising rates not if the government continues to spend so much.
I think you and i are in agreement that what is really needed is massive cuts to entitlement spending and welfare reform. You can pay for your own retirement. And the less well off can afford to work more. That’s what I say. But i’m just a broke artist raised in affluence, whose parents currently pay down his student loans. Maybe i’m too “privileged” to answer the question properly.,
You also mustn't forget Biden's disastrous green light to Germany's energy policy, which included getting hooked on Russian gas and oil. This was the true sign of completely clueless recklessness: a fantasy-based energy policy that forces Germany to fall back on coal (!) and importing Russian hydrocarbons, with American blessing. This surely made it clear to Putin that the West was not serious about stopping him and that the rest of the world would provide the cash (in the form of oil and gas revenue) to pay for his aggression.
Is it possible to conceive of anything dumber? Obama was feckless against Putin but at least supported fracking and exporting our natural gas to our allies.
It’s incredibly unlikely that Trump could do worse than the Obama-Biden-Harris Neville Chamberlain fan club.
Trump will not happily countenance American humiliation. Obama did. Biden did. And Harris promises to do the same. I can’t see Trump ok with America as the laughingstock of the world, like Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal encouraged.
Neoliberals and neoconservatives share a passion for saving the Pax Americana or the liberal world order or whatever you want to call it. It’s a good aspiration because it’s produced unprecedented prosperity and reasonable tranquility for decades.
The pressing question that now needs to be asked is whether the Pax Americana is more likely to survive under a Trump presidency or a Harris presidency.
To me, the answer is obvious; the rules based international order will collapse under Harris and just might survive under Trump.
Uniparty hacks exaggerate Trump’s hostility to NATO. What Trump has called for is not the evisceration of NATO but the imposition of serious consequences for NATO members who refuse to live up to their obligations to our mutual defense. For decades, American leaders have been chiding our European allies for their failure to do their fair share. By threatening the deadbeats, Trump is trying to motivate them to do better.
Make no mistake, they do need to do better. The UK, France and Germany, the three most important European members of NATO, couldn’t be more pathetic. The once great British navy can barely float and the new UK Prime Minister, two-tier Keir, is devoting most of his time to figuring out how to imprison citizens who post things he doesn’t like on social media.
If anything, President Macron is even more ridiculous than Prime Minister two-tier. France couldn’t be in a bigger mess. Its government (to the extent it has one) is a joke. Its military power is non-existent and it’s devoid of international clout. Despite this, Macron struts around the world like he’s the second coming of Napolean when just about everyone with a brain considers him to be the reincarnation of Elmer Fudd.
Germany is even worse. The German “miracle” has been exposed. Without cheap Russian hydrocarbons and an ability to get a free ride from the United States on defense, the German giant looks more like a German midget. The emeritus German Prime Minister famously said “Wir schaffen das“ (we can do this). A more appropriate motto for Germany would be “we can’t do this; actually we can’t do anything right.”)
Donald Trump was ridiculed for pointing out the fact that our NATO allies were nearly useless; Trump realized that the United States couldn’t fix what ails them. They needed to fix themselves. They refused. They still refuse.
In the meantime, the Biden/Harris Administration came to power at a time of peace in the Middle East and Europe. Trump’s approach to the Middle East created unprecedented peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors and Trump’s desire to pursue a Nixon-like detente with Russia was mischaracterized as a surrender to Putin by Trump’s Democrat opponents.
Simply compare the state of the world under Trump to the state of the world since Biden and Harris assumed office. The comparison speaks for itself.
What’s frightening is that Harris is even more clueless about foreign policy than Biden. Frankly, the idea that the American led international order has a better chance of surviving a Harris Administration than a Trump Administration is simply moronic.
Though as you know, I’m no fan of Donald Trump, I must concede (with certain reservations) that you make out a plausible case for him. As I suggested in my article, America and the world could hardly do worse than Obama/Biden/Harris.
Regarding NATO, the record is mixed. I agree with your criticism of the big three, but other member states have been much more stalwart: the Baltics, Poland and, perhaps surprisingly, Denmark. Granted, the latter is a small country but it has reached and surpassed NATO’s 2% of GDP defense spending target. Just recently, the Danish prime minister delivered a speech in which she pointed out that the only tolerable outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian War is a Ukrainian victory of sufficient scope to scuttle V. Putin’s imperialist ambitions. This in my view was a thinly veiled and well-deserved slam on the hapless Biden Administration’s timidity and foolishness.
I agree; some NATO nations are stepping up to the plate. Poland is; it’s become an indispensable member of NATO. New members like Finland are also behaving admirably. On the other hand, Sweden is a new member and shamefully it spends less than 2 percent of GDP on defense.
Sweden should never have been admitted. Not only did it enter NATO while failing to meet the two percent threshold, unlike its Scandanavian cousins, Denmark and Norway, which entered NATO at the beginning of the Alliance, for decades, Sweden professed neutrality. Only after Russia invaded Ukraine which scared Sweden to death did they beg permission to enter. Sweden promised to increase its defense budget to over the two percent threshold. I doubt that they will do it; to accomplish the feat they will need to increase their defense spending by somewhere between 30 and 50 percent. I’m wouldn’t recommend holding your breath.
Unlike Poland, the Scandanavian nations and Finland are small. Sweden has a population of around ten million; the others all have a population of around six million. None of them can support a large fighting force. The New York City police force is as large as the military force of these nations and the NYPD is probably more capable.
For NATO to be meaningful and for the United States not to meet the burden alone, the UK, France and Germany need to have capable military abilities. They don’t and there’s little prospect that they will in the near to medium term. These nations are in a mess politically and economically and because of uncontrolled immigration they face a cultural reckoning that will be extremely challenging. There is simply no prospect that they will contribute to NATO’s military strength any time soon.
As bad as Biden has been, the United States is in far better shape than our NATO allies. If Trump wins things might get better or, at worst, we will muddle through. If Harris wins, I believe the Pax Americana is doomed. She comes from the wing of the Democrat Party that hates America and that hates American power. Like Obama, she’s too stupid to understand that diplomatic success is dependent on economic and military strength.
Trump may be a blowhard with a somewhat jaundiced view of reality, but at least he aspires to make America great again. The ambition of Harris is to make America poorer, dumber and more incompetent than ever.
W-W Your latest screed demands pushback from someone outside your personal zone of irrational thinking. Starting from the bottom, today's greatest hits are:
1. "The ambition of Harris is to make America poorer, dumber and more incompetent than ever" -- a statement unworthy of any thinking person (much less you) it is obviously, patently, bogus. You may well think the Biden/Harris line works in that direction, but it sure is NOT an "ambition", as you say. As for the wing of the Democratic Party that "hates American and hates American power", try thinking about it this way -- some Dems believe that America tries to exert influence where it isn't welcome, and relies on military force to try and bend international law and practice in favor if American interests. "Hating" (your term) the outcome of a policy or action is not the same thing as "hating" the actor.
2. "Trump may be a blowhard with a somewhat jaundiced view of reality, but at least he aspires to make America great again" - Whoa, really? Trump MAY be a blowhard???? With a "somewhat jaundiced" view of reality????? You astonish me, sir.
These phrases go way beyond being mere understatements. You must have your thumb pushing hard on the scale when weighing the worth of what comes out of The Donald's fevered brain if you are giving the man any wiggle-room on the blowhard scale, and as for his view of reality?? "American Carnage" "STOLEN ELECTIONS", etc. etc.
3. I take issue with your statement that the UK and France currently lack "capable military abilities." They are nuclear powers, with air and naval power as well as highly capable armies, as opposed to the Russian Potemkin village-style Armed Farces whose tactics are to empty the prisons and round up random Africans for Meat Wave assaults. True, the US has more personnel and more weapons with higher lethality, but America is 5000 miles from the battle - they are a few hundred.
4. And what is this BS about "uncontrolled immigration" pushing towards a "cultural reckoning", whatever that may portend?? Germany will be overthrown by mobs of Doner-kebab streetsellers? The French will lose their fighting spirit because of Muslim Headscarf bans?? Doesn't seem likely to me. But mayber you had something else in mind -the meaning is not clear.
As my old English teacher would say to me when doling out criticism or praise, "A friendly word to the wise...": you have a tendency to try and over-sell your case. In the course of reading your (long) commentary I note that, while you do cite actual/factual points to buttress your case, at times you make assertions (which are opinions stated AS fact). Beware of the tendency to weaken your argument with conclusions which support your own bias.
Excellent assessment, but I also have my qualms about Trump & Co., especially when it concerns Ukraine. There’s JD “I don’t care about Ukraine” Vance, the isolationists in the GOP, and the Tucker Carlson aficionados who are Putin fanboys.
The Republican Party I once knew no longer adheres to Reagan’s Peace Through Strength philosophy. Now those who maintain Reaganism are smeared as “neocons” and “warmongers.”
Between the feckless Dems and the current GOP I fear for our future in the world.
I think it’s also worth pondering whether Trump could do better.
Well, tax cuts are preferable to more spending, I suppose. But they too worsen the fiscal position of the federal government.
Part of the problem is that tax cuts really are a form of spending at this point, so long as we don’t make cuts to the budget. Tax cuts lead us to borrow more to fund them and thus lead to more spending, as the deficit widens and the debt balloons. We are going to fiscal hell in a handbasket. With either Trump or Harris over the next two or three years, a shock is going to happen and America is going to lose its status as the world’s most trusted borrower. Inflation is going to rise suddenly and so will interest rates. The political dysfunction is going to be worse for buyer’s of our currency. Whoever’s in power might spend more just as bread and circuses for the people. And we’re on a fast track to becoming a South American country in this sense. And I’m not sure what the Fed can do with merely raising rates not if the government continues to spend so much.
I think you and i are in agreement that what is really needed is massive cuts to entitlement spending and welfare reform. You can pay for your own retirement. And the less well off can afford to work more. That’s what I say. But i’m just a broke artist raised in affluence, whose parents currently pay down his student loans. Maybe i’m too “privileged” to answer the question properly.,
Of course. That’s so obvious a reality that only our political class can ignore it.
You also mustn't forget Biden's disastrous green light to Germany's energy policy, which included getting hooked on Russian gas and oil. This was the true sign of completely clueless recklessness: a fantasy-based energy policy that forces Germany to fall back on coal (!) and importing Russian hydrocarbons, with American blessing. This surely made it clear to Putin that the West was not serious about stopping him and that the rest of the world would provide the cash (in the form of oil and gas revenue) to pay for his aggression.
Is it possible to conceive of anything dumber? Obama was feckless against Putin but at least supported fracking and exporting our natural gas to our allies.
It’s incredibly unlikely that Trump could do worse than the Obama-Biden-Harris Neville Chamberlain fan club.
Trump will not happily countenance American humiliation. Obama did. Biden did. And Harris promises to do the same. I can’t see Trump ok with America as the laughingstock of the world, like Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal encouraged.
Neoliberals and neoconservatives share a passion for saving the Pax Americana or the liberal world order or whatever you want to call it. It’s a good aspiration because it’s produced unprecedented prosperity and reasonable tranquility for decades.
The pressing question that now needs to be asked is whether the Pax Americana is more likely to survive under a Trump presidency or a Harris presidency.
To me, the answer is obvious; the rules based international order will collapse under Harris and just might survive under Trump.
Uniparty hacks exaggerate Trump’s hostility to NATO. What Trump has called for is not the evisceration of NATO but the imposition of serious consequences for NATO members who refuse to live up to their obligations to our mutual defense. For decades, American leaders have been chiding our European allies for their failure to do their fair share. By threatening the deadbeats, Trump is trying to motivate them to do better.
Make no mistake, they do need to do better. The UK, France and Germany, the three most important European members of NATO, couldn’t be more pathetic. The once great British navy can barely float and the new UK Prime Minister, two-tier Keir, is devoting most of his time to figuring out how to imprison citizens who post things he doesn’t like on social media.
If anything, President Macron is even more ridiculous than Prime Minister two-tier. France couldn’t be in a bigger mess. Its government (to the extent it has one) is a joke. Its military power is non-existent and it’s devoid of international clout. Despite this, Macron struts around the world like he’s the second coming of Napolean when just about everyone with a brain considers him to be the reincarnation of Elmer Fudd.
Germany is even worse. The German “miracle” has been exposed. Without cheap Russian hydrocarbons and an ability to get a free ride from the United States on defense, the German giant looks more like a German midget. The emeritus German Prime Minister famously said “Wir schaffen das“ (we can do this). A more appropriate motto for Germany would be “we can’t do this; actually we can’t do anything right.”)
Donald Trump was ridiculed for pointing out the fact that our NATO allies were nearly useless; Trump realized that the United States couldn’t fix what ails them. They needed to fix themselves. They refused. They still refuse.
In the meantime, the Biden/Harris Administration came to power at a time of peace in the Middle East and Europe. Trump’s approach to the Middle East created unprecedented peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors and Trump’s desire to pursue a Nixon-like detente with Russia was mischaracterized as a surrender to Putin by Trump’s Democrat opponents.
Simply compare the state of the world under Trump to the state of the world since Biden and Harris assumed office. The comparison speaks for itself.
What’s frightening is that Harris is even more clueless about foreign policy than Biden. Frankly, the idea that the American led international order has a better chance of surviving a Harris Administration than a Trump Administration is simply moronic.
Though as you know, I’m no fan of Donald Trump, I must concede (with certain reservations) that you make out a plausible case for him. As I suggested in my article, America and the world could hardly do worse than Obama/Biden/Harris.
Regarding NATO, the record is mixed. I agree with your criticism of the big three, but other member states have been much more stalwart: the Baltics, Poland and, perhaps surprisingly, Denmark. Granted, the latter is a small country but it has reached and surpassed NATO’s 2% of GDP defense spending target. Just recently, the Danish prime minister delivered a speech in which she pointed out that the only tolerable outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian War is a Ukrainian victory of sufficient scope to scuttle V. Putin’s imperialist ambitions. This in my view was a thinly veiled and well-deserved slam on the hapless Biden Administration’s timidity and foolishness.
I agree; some NATO nations are stepping up to the plate. Poland is; it’s become an indispensable member of NATO. New members like Finland are also behaving admirably. On the other hand, Sweden is a new member and shamefully it spends less than 2 percent of GDP on defense.
Sweden should never have been admitted. Not only did it enter NATO while failing to meet the two percent threshold, unlike its Scandanavian cousins, Denmark and Norway, which entered NATO at the beginning of the Alliance, for decades, Sweden professed neutrality. Only after Russia invaded Ukraine which scared Sweden to death did they beg permission to enter. Sweden promised to increase its defense budget to over the two percent threshold. I doubt that they will do it; to accomplish the feat they will need to increase their defense spending by somewhere between 30 and 50 percent. I’m wouldn’t recommend holding your breath.
Unlike Poland, the Scandanavian nations and Finland are small. Sweden has a population of around ten million; the others all have a population of around six million. None of them can support a large fighting force. The New York City police force is as large as the military force of these nations and the NYPD is probably more capable.
For NATO to be meaningful and for the United States not to meet the burden alone, the UK, France and Germany need to have capable military abilities. They don’t and there’s little prospect that they will in the near to medium term. These nations are in a mess politically and economically and because of uncontrolled immigration they face a cultural reckoning that will be extremely challenging. There is simply no prospect that they will contribute to NATO’s military strength any time soon.
As bad as Biden has been, the United States is in far better shape than our NATO allies. If Trump wins things might get better or, at worst, we will muddle through. If Harris wins, I believe the Pax Americana is doomed. She comes from the wing of the Democrat Party that hates America and that hates American power. Like Obama, she’s too stupid to understand that diplomatic success is dependent on economic and military strength.
Trump may be a blowhard with a somewhat jaundiced view of reality, but at least he aspires to make America great again. The ambition of Harris is to make America poorer, dumber and more incompetent than ever.
W-W Your latest screed demands pushback from someone outside your personal zone of irrational thinking. Starting from the bottom, today's greatest hits are:
1. "The ambition of Harris is to make America poorer, dumber and more incompetent than ever" -- a statement unworthy of any thinking person (much less you) it is obviously, patently, bogus. You may well think the Biden/Harris line works in that direction, but it sure is NOT an "ambition", as you say. As for the wing of the Democratic Party that "hates American and hates American power", try thinking about it this way -- some Dems believe that America tries to exert influence where it isn't welcome, and relies on military force to try and bend international law and practice in favor if American interests. "Hating" (your term) the outcome of a policy or action is not the same thing as "hating" the actor.
2. "Trump may be a blowhard with a somewhat jaundiced view of reality, but at least he aspires to make America great again" - Whoa, really? Trump MAY be a blowhard???? With a "somewhat jaundiced" view of reality????? You astonish me, sir.
These phrases go way beyond being mere understatements. You must have your thumb pushing hard on the scale when weighing the worth of what comes out of The Donald's fevered brain if you are giving the man any wiggle-room on the blowhard scale, and as for his view of reality?? "American Carnage" "STOLEN ELECTIONS", etc. etc.
3. I take issue with your statement that the UK and France currently lack "capable military abilities." They are nuclear powers, with air and naval power as well as highly capable armies, as opposed to the Russian Potemkin village-style Armed Farces whose tactics are to empty the prisons and round up random Africans for Meat Wave assaults. True, the US has more personnel and more weapons with higher lethality, but America is 5000 miles from the battle - they are a few hundred.
4. And what is this BS about "uncontrolled immigration" pushing towards a "cultural reckoning", whatever that may portend?? Germany will be overthrown by mobs of Doner-kebab streetsellers? The French will lose their fighting spirit because of Muslim Headscarf bans?? Doesn't seem likely to me. But mayber you had something else in mind -the meaning is not clear.
As my old English teacher would say to me when doling out criticism or praise, "A friendly word to the wise...": you have a tendency to try and over-sell your case. In the course of reading your (long) commentary I note that, while you do cite actual/factual points to buttress your case, at times you make assertions (which are opinions stated AS fact). Beware of the tendency to weaken your argument with conclusions which support your own bias.
Excellent assessment, but I also have my qualms about Trump & Co., especially when it concerns Ukraine. There’s JD “I don’t care about Ukraine” Vance, the isolationists in the GOP, and the Tucker Carlson aficionados who are Putin fanboys.
The Republican Party I once knew no longer adheres to Reagan’s Peace Through Strength philosophy. Now those who maintain Reaganism are smeared as “neocons” and “warmongers.”
Between the feckless Dems and the current GOP I fear for our future in the world.