“If the Ukrainians succeed in doing this, they may be able to score a decisive victory. If not, the war will settle back into a stalemate, with neither side able to force a military decision.” (Thomas Gregg)
The Ukrainians need a decisive victory now. A stalemate is not sustainable because Americans and Europeans are losing patience with the status quo. Given the total dependence of Ukraine on Western supplied arms, once the Western public tires of underwriting the conflict, absent a major victory (or something that can be spun as a major victory) Ukraine’s goose will be cooked.
Before the cold weather reappears, we need to pray that Ukraine achieves some major victories. If not, things could deteriorate quickly and a Chinese-brokered cease fire can be expected.
People tend to forget that there are two sides to this war. The fact is that the Russian Army has shot its bolt. So even if the Ukrainian offensive misfires, V. Putin would be in no position to exploit the situation. Things have gotten so bad that the Wagner Group has bailed on the Russians, reportedly because the latter can’t supply those vile mercenaries with ammunition.
As for the Chinese, I doubt that they could persuade either side to throw up the sponge. The Ukrainians certainly wouldn’t accept them as the honest broker. Nor do I think that this war will end just because third parties get tired of it.
Thomas, this is as usual excellent. Would you allow us to republish it at CG? I think our readers would find it valuable.
As always, Claire, I’d be honored to have my work appear in TCG.
Wonderful! It will be up today--a perfect fit. Thank you so much!
“If the Ukrainians succeed in doing this, they may be able to score a decisive victory. If not, the war will settle back into a stalemate, with neither side able to force a military decision.” (Thomas Gregg)
The Ukrainians need a decisive victory now. A stalemate is not sustainable because Americans and Europeans are losing patience with the status quo. Given the total dependence of Ukraine on Western supplied arms, once the Western public tires of underwriting the conflict, absent a major victory (or something that can be spun as a major victory) Ukraine’s goose will be cooked.
Before the cold weather reappears, we need to pray that Ukraine achieves some major victories. If not, things could deteriorate quickly and a Chinese-brokered cease fire can be expected.
People tend to forget that there are two sides to this war. The fact is that the Russian Army has shot its bolt. So even if the Ukrainian offensive misfires, V. Putin would be in no position to exploit the situation. Things have gotten so bad that the Wagner Group has bailed on the Russians, reportedly because the latter can’t supply those vile mercenaries with ammunition.
As for the Chinese, I doubt that they could persuade either side to throw up the sponge. The Ukrainians certainly wouldn’t accept them as the honest broker. Nor do I think that this war will end just because third parties get tired of it.