To Tim Smyth. (For some reason I can’t reply to your comment in the thread where you wrote it).
How American Jews feel about Ukraine or Israel simply doesn’t matter much. The reason is simple; most segments of the American Jewish community are experiencing demographic collapse. American Jews are about as fecund as Episcopalians which is to say, not fecund at all. There’s also a lot of intermarriage and few of the children in these marriages are raised Jewish. Within two generations the American Jewish community will barely be visible.
Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jews don’t intermarry and they make a lot of babies. Orthodox Jews produce on average 3 children per marraige which is way above replacement. Ultra-Orthodox American Jews have on average 7 children per marriage. Orthodox Jews are far more supportive of Israel than secular and reform Jews and they are also more likely to vote Republican. Ultra Orthidox Jews are socially very conservative and they vote as a block. It’s important to remember that a sizable portion of the ultra-Orthodox community (about 15 percent, primarily the Satmar sect) is not Zionist and opposes Israel for religious reasons (they believe the State of Israel can only be established when the Messiah finally comes).
Jews currently make up 2.5 percent of the American population. By the end of the century it will be less than one percent. By then, there won’t be many more American Jews than American Sikhs. The few Jews still remaining in the United States will be more conservative than ever and most, but not all, will be fervent Zionists. Their numbers will be far too small to matter.
Those congregations you visited, Tim, will almost all die out and many of the synagogue buildings will be reconsecrated as evangelical churches. In fact, that’s already happening.
Netanyahu is right to have disdain for contemporary American Jews; he knows that the community is committing suicide.
Far and away the most important supporters of Israel in the United States are Evangelical Protestants. They are also experiencing demographic decline but there are still tens of millions of them. They are a critical voting group in at least 25 of the 50 American States.
The organization Christians United for Israel (CUFI) is more powerful than AIPAC. It’s no wonder that most of the political parties in Israel view the American. Evangelical community as at least as important (and maybe more important) than the American Jewish community.
This isn’t just an American phenomenon. Evangelical Protestants are supplanting Roman Catholics throughout Latin America and Brazil. By way of example, Bolsonaro supporters in Brazil make up almost exactly 50 percent of the population. These supporters are primarily Evangelical and fiercely Zionist. The new President of Argentina who won by an overwhelming majority is in the process of converting to Judaism. He recently visited Israel and has promised to move Argentina’s embassy to Jerusalem.
The Nazis practically denuded Europe of it’s Jewish population but we see a similar phenomenon in Europe. Movements previously associated with the fascists are now supporting Israel including the AFD in Germany and Geert Wilders party in the Netherlands. Viktor Orban claims to be deeply committed to restoring Europe’s Christian values. I can’t comment on his sincerity but one thing is apparent; he’s the most passionately pro-Israel leader in the EU.
Evangelical Christianity is not only the fastest growing religious movement in the world now, it’s one of the fastest growing religious movements in world history. Evangelical Protestantism is growing far more quickly than Islam is. Evangelicals are overwhelmingly (but not entirely) pro Israel.
Who would have guessed that Jewish supporters of Israel would diminish in importance while Evangelical supporters of Israel would become more important than ever?
Hmm, raise your eyes above domestic politics and at the wider world. Most of the 13 comments here seem to be saying what Biden's psephologists have already told him: the Dearborn vote is far too small to win any electoral colleges, let alone the election.
Biden is simply trying to make Israel obey the laws of war.
Perhaps Biden should spend more time trying to make Hamas obey the laws of war. And by the way, do you know what the laws of war are? No, you do not. To you, it’s just a phrase.
In the Gaza War, the main relevant law of war is a body of universally accepted customary practices, multilateral treaties, and normative principles that protect those who are not directly participating in hostilities. A blatant disregard or conscious violation of these rules constitutes a war crime.
Protection of these people is through the four principles of distinction, military necessity, proportionality, and feasible precaution. The primary document outlining these principles is the 1977 Protocol Relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts (https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/assets/files/other/icrc_002_0321.pdf). Even those who have not yet ratified the Protocol (such as Israel) have implicitly accepted most of its provisions by incorporating them verbatim into their military manuals and by publicly stating their legality (I've just finished reading 'Making Endless War: The Vietnam and Arab-Israeli Conflicts in the History of International Law' edited by Brian Cuddy & Victor Kattan, 2023).
I explain, as briefly as I possibly could, that the conscious and deliberate stretching of these laws has corroded their integrity, and has led, inevitably, to the bloodbath in Gaza > https://substack.com/@charlesfiddespayne/note/c-47788661
Nah, all this is b.s.—for the glaringly obvious reason that you’re applying your strictures to Israel but not to Hamas. Why is that, I find myself wondering? And I conclude that your arguments are an exercise in gross hypocrisy. And don’t bother to rebut, because my mind regarding you is made up—and in no charitable sense.
"you’re applying your strictures to Israel but not to Hamas" -
1. If you read my linked piece on 'When not targeting civilians is targeting civilians' along with Kiran Pfitzner's piece upon which it was partly based, then would you like to amend your quoted statement?
2. Your post is on 'Biden to Israel: Drop Dead. Wittingly or not, the President prepares to abandon an ally', so I'm sticking to the thread's core topic of Israel, don't you agree?
3. Even though Hamas (and many of their not-at-all innocent civilian and non-combatant Palestinian subjects) have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity, how does that invalidate any of the obligations of the state of Israel to obey the laws of war?
Isn't the decision of the ICJ more complex than your summary? It stopped short of declaring Israel's behaviour Genocide because of 2 dissenting votes out of 17, though even the American judge Joan Donogue voted that it was plausible genocide.
Thank you for responding, but where do you get "you believe no one has a right to defend himself"? Here's a relevant piece for anyone else who's reading this and would like to know what's in my timeline > https://substack.com/@charlesfiddespayne/note/c-47788661
According to you, Israel has the abstract right to defend itself, but in the real world, it can't, because the "laws of war" make it impossible for a conventional army to respond to an guerrilla group (AKA terrorists) who purposely hide among civilians. Thanks. With friends like you, Israel will have a lovely funeral.
Isn't the far greater danger to Israel the expansion of this war? Has Hamas on its own ever posed an existential threat ("Israel will have a lovely funeral")?
Up until 2000, it really looked like the Arab-Israeli conflict was going to be settled, given 1979 Egypt and 1994 Jordan.
If Israel could settle with Syria (their differences were paper-thin in 1993 with Rabin, and again in 2000 with Barak just before Hafiz died), that would significantly deter Iran and Hizbullah.
Time may be running out, because there are huge, battle-hardened and well-armed armies north of Israel that will soon be twiddling their thumbs, and, combined with another Intifada in PA territory, wouldn't that be the real threat to Israel rather than Hamas?
Churchill's admonition to Chamberlain is not quite right, but it captures the essence of Biden (both as regards to Israel and Ukraine).
“You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war.'
The US has long been a "cut and run" ally. Just ask the Kurds.
But right now the stakes are particularly high. Our allies don't really trust us; the implications of that distrust are tremendous. All of Asia is paying particular attention.
Steve, can you see the irony in Churchill's comment for contemporary USA and Israel (and Ukraine)?
Churchill went to war in order to protect his aristocratic way of life, the British Empire and the Conservative Party. By the end of it, all three had been lost.
Ukraine first because it's the easiest. Ukraine is definitely no longer a sustainable state. Before the war, it was in debt and struggling against corruption (its current President even made a TV series and a film about how Ukraine was perfectly corrupt). It is now a failed state, propped up by ever more precarious and dwindling amounts of American and EU money.
Israel has fought and argued itself into a Perpetual War, and forged through iron and blood yet more generations of implacable enemies. Were it not for Israeli policy, there would be no 9/11, and thus no Gulf War 2 nor Afghanistan. The Israel Lobby has already humbled the USA.
This is ridiculous when it’s not simply despicable. What is the evidence that Churchill went to war with Nazi Germany “to protect his aristocratic way of life”? That’s just bullshit. And who are you to wave Ukraine out of existence? And finally, why is it that in your mind that the Jews, alone among the peoples of the world, should be denied the dignity of statehood? When one looks at the debased and wretched condition of the Palestinian Arabs, mesmerized by a fantasy of genocidal nationalism, the question occurs: Why do they deserve the dignity of statehood? Don’t we already have more than enough, despotic homicidal regimes masquerading as national states?
1. 'What is the evidence that Churchill went to war with Nazi Germany “to protect his aristocratic way of life”?'
He was born in Blenheim Palace and was the 1st Duke of Marlborough's direct descendent. The aristocratic order was just part of his outlook on life which included the activist support for the Empire and his Tory wing of the Conservative Party. His ready endorsement of force against Britons and their imperial subalterns was also what caused him to oppose Appeasement. Before the war was over, he was voted out of office. Because of the war, his way of life was destroyed.
2. 'to wave Ukraine out of existence'.
I see little appetite in either the USA or in Europe to help Ukraine win this war. Rather, by their deeds, they appear prepared for Ukraine to lose, just slowly.
Is this waving Ukraine out of existence? Ukraine, by not letting Crimea and the Donbas go in the ill-fated negotiations of 2014-5, may have waved itself out of existence. There was a second chance at a negotiated settlement in Turkey just after the 2022 invasion, but two years later with Ukraine now living off Western intravenous life support, how can you argue that the rump of Ukraine is sustainable? And who is going to pay to reconstruct the country?
3. 'And finally, why ... ALONE among the peoples of the world, should be denied the dignity of statehood? ... Why do they deserve the dignity of statehood?'
Yes, the British empire died along with Churchill's way of life and British conservatism (there hasn't been a conservative British leader since Thatcher).
The British Empire died in the Second World War, but Eisenhower put the boot in when he forced the retreat from Suez (another good ally move by the US).
And if Churchill had not led Britain to war, Germany might have won - a fate (maybe) worse that the slow decay Britain has experienced over the past 80 years.
(For a fictional but harrowing insight into a British defeat, read Len Deighton's "SS-GB".)
And honor. Never forget that both men and nations need honor to be great. The British showed great honor and courage in WW2.
Honor has been lacking in the American government for the past 40 years.
Look at the lack of shame (and accountability) for the disgraceful retreat from Afghanistan.
I feel compassion for the Ukrainians, but my thoughts are pragmatic. It does not serve our interests to abandon them. That is why I quoted Churchill. He was right about Czechoslovakia then and Republicans are wrong about Ukraine now.
Israel is arguably a different case (they manipulate our politics and I have not forgotten the Liberty or Pollard). But Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East. And a good ally (not out of love, but necessity).
In life, Nations (as well as people) sometimes have to draw lines in the sand (not an Obama red line).
The US can follow Britain into the trash slowly and inevitably or we can act with honor and win.
(If we have the money to forgive $550MM in student debt and so much other pork (see Biden's proposed budget), we can certainly find the money to support the Ukraine.)
Ukraine's need for weapons has shown that we (and Europe) let our armaments industry decline to a point that we might no longer be fully credible as a major adversary. We got a necessary wake-up call and we should take heed.
Happy to see we agree on Pollard and Liberty. My former workplace had an anti espionage poster next to the water cooler. On it were the mugshots or Aldrich Ames, Robert Hansen, and Jonathan Pollard obviously equating the three of them. The NSA museum at Fort Meade has a great exhibit on the USS Liberty.
Lots of good points, and you gave alot more examples of the mistake of going to war. SS-GB almost happened, and there were so many cross-roads in history of how Germany could have won. Financially, there was only one winner of WW2, all the other combatants lost.
That's one reason why Europeans show no signs whatsoever of going to war against Russia, but that's the only way Putin will be beaten, and even then, the bill for reconstruction will be many multiples more. Who is going to pay for rebuilding Ukraine?
And that's the question I have for Israel. What are the plans for after the war, and who has agreed to them? And who will pay to clear up their mess? The moment Israeli voters get that bill will be the moment when Arab Israelis suddenly become the majority in that democracy ...
Why would our allies trust us? They have plenty of good reasons to think that they’ll get kick to the curb if the going gets rough. And that’s true of Trump as well as of Biden.
If that was the plan, it was stupid. October 7 assured that there won't be an independent Palestinian state any time soon—if ever. It can't happen without Israel's cooperation, which is not forthcoming.
Yes he could! Oh, he absolutely could. Especially if this time around Javanka stay out of the White House. Remember his first reaction to the news on October 7?
I'd like to think so, but you must admit that Biden's working hard to narrow the gap. I'm really concerned about the confusion and incoherence into which the Biden Administration's foreign policy has fallen. After October 7 Biden came on strong—but now look.
I agree. Clearly there's a big tug-of-war in his cabinet. My bet: We'll soon see one of those articles in WaPo for which the reporter spoke to sixty people in the Administration, none of them named, explaining that behind the scenes, Kamala and Sullivan are at each others' throats over this. Sullivan's public comments have been solid. Kamala--well, you can take the girl out of the Bay Area, you can't take the Bay Area out of the girl. (We talk about this a bit in today's podcast.)
I couldn't agree more than if what Biden's trying to do is cultivate the Dearborn vote, he's an idiot. He needs to do *exactly* the opposite. The far left has nowhere to go; it's the Nikki voters he needs to persuade. But as John pointed out to me in the podcast, the audience for this might not be domestic--and might not be Israeli, either.
I'm cutting them a bit of slack on Israel, despite the criticisms you'll hear in the podcast, because so far the behavior has been solid, even if the criticism and leaking is infuriating and deeply harmful. Biden et al. are still doing the most important things: vetoing resolutions at the UN and replenishing the weapons. (Or trying to, anyway: It isn't his fault that Congress is in the hands of lunatics.) By the way, Jay, if you're listening: If you think Trump would be better on Israel, remember that it's Trump who told his buttboy Mike Johnson to kill the bill that would have sent them the weapons they need. I don't know how far they are from needing those the way Ukraine does--they may have enough of everything they need stockpiled to be able to hold out for quite some time (and they'd be fools if they didn't). But I'll take a Biden who says idiotic things but tries to get Israel the ammo it needs over a Trump who says the wrong things and is trying to cut Israel off completely in the middle of a desperate war.
And another thought just occurred to me. Perhaps Biden & Co. are worried about what might happen during the Democratic National Convention this summer. It's taking place in Chicago—an ill omen. And it'll be catnip for the "anti-Zionist" mob, wouldn't it? "The Whole World Is Watching: River-to-Sea Edition."
Good points, mostly. I just think that the contradiction between actions and words is not something that a bunch of second-raters like the cadres of the Biden Administration can sustain. Bismarck could have done it, sure, but there seems to be a shortage of Bismarckian guile in America at the moment. The Administration will have to break one way or the other eventually, and I fear it'll break against Israel.
I do too. But I think Biden is, basically, an old-school, imprinted-on-Leon-Uris Zionist. He can't stand Netanyahu, but I think he basically loves and admires Israel. (But Kamala, I suspect, is a standard-issue left-wing antisemite.)
The problem is in blue areas even Jews aren't really into Israel. I have seen Vladislav Davidzon speak twice now in Boston both times. The last time early this week was before a large crowd of Jewish and Eastern European studies students and the previous time was at what I think was a fairly left wing reform synagogue(not an expert on these thing but it reminded of one those left wing protestant denominations like the Unitarians). Anyways on both occasions the audience which I think was overwhelmingly Jewish wanted to primarily talk about Ukraine and showed little interest or support for Israel(Vlad knows these people better than me and maybe he would contradict my observation)
On the first talk something that has been stuck in my head is the fact the Rabbi said as a matter of Rabbinical doctrine and law you cannot support Vladimir Putin and be Jewish or to put it another way anyone who support Putin and says they are a Jew isn't really one and is just a faker. The rabbi also strongly implied Putin is no different than another previous dictator Jews had problems with in the previous century(She didn't say the name but it was obvious to me and I think to you). So here is the danger IMHO if Israel is perceived to supporting Putin and we can debate whether or not that is true but even Vladislav would acknowledge this isn't an open and shut question well if Jews can't support Putin and be Jewish as a matter or rabbinical law then well Israel can't really be a Jewish state. THIS is my mind is the biggest danger for Israel and one the River to the Sea crowd would be pushing if they were not garden variety anti-Semites and were actually trying to take down the State of Israel. That is delegitimize the state of Israel and it's lack of support for Ukraine as matter of rabbinical law and doctrine.
Now to be clear this isn't exactly the first time the state of Israel has had issues with rabbinical doctrine and authority(and it still has in parts of the orthodox community) but the way Israel in the past got rabbinical support is that after 1967 the rabbis followed there congregations. You have to wonder if in fact this time around the rot is even deeper and the rabbis are now following the congregations again just in the opposite direction. Again Vlad might disagree with me. He knows this people very well much better than me including the rabbi I was referring. I think they can't stand Netanyahu and can't stand anyone in Judiaism who doesn't support Ukraine. Does that mean they don't support Israel? Not yet but I emphasize the yet.
No doubt some American Jews will pick Biden over Israel. But many more are going to be asking why he hasn’t stepped up to denounce the horrifying outburst of antisemitism in America since October 7. Is there a good answer to that question? Inquiring minds want to know.
Totally disagree about Biden. I don't think he likes Israel at all. He compared the Palestinians with the Irish in a visit to East Jerusalem, even quoting a Seamus Heaney poem. I think he'd love to dump it but he can't.
Biden is inadvertently helping Netanyahu; the latest polls show his party beating Gantz’s by 10 Knesset seats and likewise their prospective coalitions by an even wider margin.
This century Biden has as good a foreign policy record as any major politician…he isn’t a “weathervane” but he does want to win reelection. The “virtue signaling” Biden does is generally to placate progressives while he implements policies Republicans have supported in the past. So the LNG pause is the best example—we have become energy dominant thanks to Biden’s policies and to placate progressives he does a pause on new export terminals in 2027.
To Tim Smyth. (For some reason I can’t reply to your comment in the thread where you wrote it).
How American Jews feel about Ukraine or Israel simply doesn’t matter much. The reason is simple; most segments of the American Jewish community are experiencing demographic collapse. American Jews are about as fecund as Episcopalians which is to say, not fecund at all. There’s also a lot of intermarriage and few of the children in these marriages are raised Jewish. Within two generations the American Jewish community will barely be visible.
Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jews don’t intermarry and they make a lot of babies. Orthodox Jews produce on average 3 children per marraige which is way above replacement. Ultra-Orthodox American Jews have on average 7 children per marriage. Orthodox Jews are far more supportive of Israel than secular and reform Jews and they are also more likely to vote Republican. Ultra Orthidox Jews are socially very conservative and they vote as a block. It’s important to remember that a sizable portion of the ultra-Orthodox community (about 15 percent, primarily the Satmar sect) is not Zionist and opposes Israel for religious reasons (they believe the State of Israel can only be established when the Messiah finally comes).
Jews currently make up 2.5 percent of the American population. By the end of the century it will be less than one percent. By then, there won’t be many more American Jews than American Sikhs. The few Jews still remaining in the United States will be more conservative than ever and most, but not all, will be fervent Zionists. Their numbers will be far too small to matter.
Those congregations you visited, Tim, will almost all die out and many of the synagogue buildings will be reconsecrated as evangelical churches. In fact, that’s already happening.
Netanyahu is right to have disdain for contemporary American Jews; he knows that the community is committing suicide.
Far and away the most important supporters of Israel in the United States are Evangelical Protestants. They are also experiencing demographic decline but there are still tens of millions of them. They are a critical voting group in at least 25 of the 50 American States.
The organization Christians United for Israel (CUFI) is more powerful than AIPAC. It’s no wonder that most of the political parties in Israel view the American. Evangelical community as at least as important (and maybe more important) than the American Jewish community.
This isn’t just an American phenomenon. Evangelical Protestants are supplanting Roman Catholics throughout Latin America and Brazil. By way of example, Bolsonaro supporters in Brazil make up almost exactly 50 percent of the population. These supporters are primarily Evangelical and fiercely Zionist. The new President of Argentina who won by an overwhelming majority is in the process of converting to Judaism. He recently visited Israel and has promised to move Argentina’s embassy to Jerusalem.
The Nazis practically denuded Europe of it’s Jewish population but we see a similar phenomenon in Europe. Movements previously associated with the fascists are now supporting Israel including the AFD in Germany and Geert Wilders party in the Netherlands. Viktor Orban claims to be deeply committed to restoring Europe’s Christian values. I can’t comment on his sincerity but one thing is apparent; he’s the most passionately pro-Israel leader in the EU.
Evangelical Christianity is not only the fastest growing religious movement in the world now, it’s one of the fastest growing religious movements in world history. Evangelical Protestantism is growing far more quickly than Islam is. Evangelicals are overwhelmingly (but not entirely) pro Israel.
Who would have guessed that Jewish supporters of Israel would diminish in importance while Evangelical supporters of Israel would become more important than ever?
Hashem works in mysterious ways.
Yigal Carmon thinks the Gaza port is great:
https://www.memri.org/reports/port-hope-gaza-beginning-end-war
Hmm, raise your eyes above domestic politics and at the wider world. Most of the 13 comments here seem to be saying what Biden's psephologists have already told him: the Dearborn vote is far too small to win any electoral colleges, let alone the election.
Biden is simply trying to make Israel obey the laws of war.
Perhaps Biden should spend more time trying to make Hamas obey the laws of war. And by the way, do you know what the laws of war are? No, you do not. To you, it’s just a phrase.
Unfortunately I do, Thomas.
In the Gaza War, the main relevant law of war is a body of universally accepted customary practices, multilateral treaties, and normative principles that protect those who are not directly participating in hostilities. A blatant disregard or conscious violation of these rules constitutes a war crime.
Protection of these people is through the four principles of distinction, military necessity, proportionality, and feasible precaution. The primary document outlining these principles is the 1977 Protocol Relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts (https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/assets/files/other/icrc_002_0321.pdf). Even those who have not yet ratified the Protocol (such as Israel) have implicitly accepted most of its provisions by incorporating them verbatim into their military manuals and by publicly stating their legality (I've just finished reading 'Making Endless War: The Vietnam and Arab-Israeli Conflicts in the History of International Law' edited by Brian Cuddy & Victor Kattan, 2023).
I explain, as briefly as I possibly could, that the conscious and deliberate stretching of these laws has corroded their integrity, and has led, inevitably, to the bloodbath in Gaza > https://substack.com/@charlesfiddespayne/note/c-47788661
" A blatant disregard or conscious violation of these rules constitutes a war crime."
None of which Israel has been doing.
Thanks for the copypasta.
Then what did the ICJ's judgment and its provisional ruling state? I can copypasta it for you if you can't summarise it here ...
Nah, all this is b.s.—for the glaringly obvious reason that you’re applying your strictures to Israel but not to Hamas. Why is that, I find myself wondering? And I conclude that your arguments are an exercise in gross hypocrisy. And don’t bother to rebut, because my mind regarding you is made up—and in no charitable sense.
"you’re applying your strictures to Israel but not to Hamas" -
1. If you read my linked piece on 'When not targeting civilians is targeting civilians' along with Kiran Pfitzner's piece upon which it was partly based, then would you like to amend your quoted statement?
2. Your post is on 'Biden to Israel: Drop Dead. Wittingly or not, the President prepares to abandon an ally', so I'm sticking to the thread's core topic of Israel, don't you agree?
3. Even though Hamas (and many of their not-at-all innocent civilian and non-combatant Palestinian subjects) have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity, how does that invalidate any of the obligations of the state of Israel to obey the laws of war?
Israel is observing the laws of war. Hamas is not. That’s the reality.
Isn't the decision of the ICJ more complex than your summary? It stopped short of declaring Israel's behaviour Genocide because of 2 dissenting votes out of 17, though even the American judge Joan Donogue voted that it was plausible genocide.
Even before New Year, the evidence of breaking the laws of war in the South African 84-page case looked disturbing > https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231228-app-01-00-en.pdf
If the court agrees with South Africa about the subsequent Israeli campaigns, then Israel will go into the history books.
So the laws of war say Jews aren't allowed to defend themselves?
Edit: just looked at your timeline, apparently you believe no one has a right to defend himself.
Thank you for responding, but where do you get "you believe no one has a right to defend himself"? Here's a relevant piece for anyone else who's reading this and would like to know what's in my timeline > https://substack.com/@charlesfiddespayne/note/c-47788661
> Thank you for responding, but where do you get "you believe no one has a right to defend himself"?
https://substack.com/@charlesfiddespayne/note/c-47379318
Where does it say "no one has a right to defend himself"?
With this part - "all parties to all wars should go to the ICJ" - every one has a right to defend himself, in the court, don't you agree? :-)
According to you, Israel has the abstract right to defend itself, but in the real world, it can't, because the "laws of war" make it impossible for a conventional army to respond to an guerrilla group (AKA terrorists) who purposely hide among civilians. Thanks. With friends like you, Israel will have a lovely funeral.
Isn't the far greater danger to Israel the expansion of this war? Has Hamas on its own ever posed an existential threat ("Israel will have a lovely funeral")?
Up until 2000, it really looked like the Arab-Israeli conflict was going to be settled, given 1979 Egypt and 1994 Jordan.
If Israel could settle with Syria (their differences were paper-thin in 1993 with Rabin, and again in 2000 with Barak just before Hafiz died), that would significantly deter Iran and Hizbullah.
Time may be running out, because there are huge, battle-hardened and well-armed armies north of Israel that will soon be twiddling their thumbs, and, combined with another Intifada in PA territory, wouldn't that be the real threat to Israel rather than Hamas?
Believe me, you can't get anywhere with people like this.
Thank you for this.
Churchill's admonition to Chamberlain is not quite right, but it captures the essence of Biden (both as regards to Israel and Ukraine).
“You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war.'
The US has long been a "cut and run" ally. Just ask the Kurds.
But right now the stakes are particularly high. Our allies don't really trust us; the implications of that distrust are tremendous. All of Asia is paying particular attention.
Steve, can you see the irony in Churchill's comment for contemporary USA and Israel (and Ukraine)?
Churchill went to war in order to protect his aristocratic way of life, the British Empire and the Conservative Party. By the end of it, all three had been lost.
Ukraine first because it's the easiest. Ukraine is definitely no longer a sustainable state. Before the war, it was in debt and struggling against corruption (its current President even made a TV series and a film about how Ukraine was perfectly corrupt). It is now a failed state, propped up by ever more precarious and dwindling amounts of American and EU money.
Israel has fought and argued itself into a Perpetual War, and forged through iron and blood yet more generations of implacable enemies. Were it not for Israeli policy, there would be no 9/11, and thus no Gulf War 2 nor Afghanistan. The Israel Lobby has already humbled the USA.
This is ridiculous when it’s not simply despicable. What is the evidence that Churchill went to war with Nazi Germany “to protect his aristocratic way of life”? That’s just bullshit. And who are you to wave Ukraine out of existence? And finally, why is it that in your mind that the Jews, alone among the peoples of the world, should be denied the dignity of statehood? When one looks at the debased and wretched condition of the Palestinian Arabs, mesmerized by a fantasy of genocidal nationalism, the question occurs: Why do they deserve the dignity of statehood? Don’t we already have more than enough, despotic homicidal regimes masquerading as national states?
1. 'What is the evidence that Churchill went to war with Nazi Germany “to protect his aristocratic way of life”?'
He was born in Blenheim Palace and was the 1st Duke of Marlborough's direct descendent. The aristocratic order was just part of his outlook on life which included the activist support for the Empire and his Tory wing of the Conservative Party. His ready endorsement of force against Britons and their imperial subalterns was also what caused him to oppose Appeasement. Before the war was over, he was voted out of office. Because of the war, his way of life was destroyed.
2. 'to wave Ukraine out of existence'.
I see little appetite in either the USA or in Europe to help Ukraine win this war. Rather, by their deeds, they appear prepared for Ukraine to lose, just slowly.
Is this waving Ukraine out of existence? Ukraine, by not letting Crimea and the Donbas go in the ill-fated negotiations of 2014-5, may have waved itself out of existence. There was a second chance at a negotiated settlement in Turkey just after the 2022 invasion, but two years later with Ukraine now living off Western intravenous life support, how can you argue that the rump of Ukraine is sustainable? And who is going to pay to reconstruct the country?
3. 'And finally, why ... ALONE among the peoples of the world, should be denied the dignity of statehood? ... Why do they deserve the dignity of statehood?'
Haven't you just contradicted yourself? :-)
Yes, the British empire died along with Churchill's way of life and British conservatism (there hasn't been a conservative British leader since Thatcher).
The British Empire died in the Second World War, but Eisenhower put the boot in when he forced the retreat from Suez (another good ally move by the US).
And if Churchill had not led Britain to war, Germany might have won - a fate (maybe) worse that the slow decay Britain has experienced over the past 80 years.
(For a fictional but harrowing insight into a British defeat, read Len Deighton's "SS-GB".)
And honor. Never forget that both men and nations need honor to be great. The British showed great honor and courage in WW2.
Honor has been lacking in the American government for the past 40 years.
Look at the lack of shame (and accountability) for the disgraceful retreat from Afghanistan.
I feel compassion for the Ukrainians, but my thoughts are pragmatic. It does not serve our interests to abandon them. That is why I quoted Churchill. He was right about Czechoslovakia then and Republicans are wrong about Ukraine now.
Israel is arguably a different case (they manipulate our politics and I have not forgotten the Liberty or Pollard). But Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East. And a good ally (not out of love, but necessity).
In life, Nations (as well as people) sometimes have to draw lines in the sand (not an Obama red line).
The US can follow Britain into the trash slowly and inevitably or we can act with honor and win.
(If we have the money to forgive $550MM in student debt and so much other pork (see Biden's proposed budget), we can certainly find the money to support the Ukraine.)
Ukraine's need for weapons has shown that we (and Europe) let our armaments industry decline to a point that we might no longer be fully credible as a major adversary. We got a necessary wake-up call and we should take heed.
Happy to see we agree on Pollard and Liberty. My former workplace had an anti espionage poster next to the water cooler. On it were the mugshots or Aldrich Ames, Robert Hansen, and Jonathan Pollard obviously equating the three of them. The NSA museum at Fort Meade has a great exhibit on the USS Liberty.
Lots of good points, and you gave alot more examples of the mistake of going to war. SS-GB almost happened, and there were so many cross-roads in history of how Germany could have won. Financially, there was only one winner of WW2, all the other combatants lost.
That's one reason why Europeans show no signs whatsoever of going to war against Russia, but that's the only way Putin will be beaten, and even then, the bill for reconstruction will be many multiples more. Who is going to pay for rebuilding Ukraine?
And that's the question I have for Israel. What are the plans for after the war, and who has agreed to them? And who will pay to clear up their mess? The moment Israeli voters get that bill will be the moment when Arab Israelis suddenly become the majority in that democracy ...
Why would our allies trust us? They have plenty of good reasons to think that they’ll get kick to the curb if the going gets rough. And that’s true of Trump as well as of Biden.
Biden is Blinken. The plan from day 1 was to let Israel let off some steam and then ram a PA state down their throats.
Another four years of this - or Harris??? - and the free world can turn off the lights.
If that was the plan, it was stupid. October 7 assured that there won't be an independent Palestinian state any time soon—if ever. It can't happen without Israel's cooperation, which is not forthcoming.
Stupid it was. State has been dreaming of this for decades.
Yes he could! Oh, he absolutely could. Especially if this time around Javanka stay out of the White House. Remember his first reaction to the news on October 7?
I'd like to think so, but you must admit that Biden's working hard to narrow the gap. I'm really concerned about the confusion and incoherence into which the Biden Administration's foreign policy has fallen. After October 7 Biden came on strong—but now look.
Biden has also been destroying our armed forces with DIE nonsense.
I agree. Clearly there's a big tug-of-war in his cabinet. My bet: We'll soon see one of those articles in WaPo for which the reporter spoke to sixty people in the Administration, none of them named, explaining that behind the scenes, Kamala and Sullivan are at each others' throats over this. Sullivan's public comments have been solid. Kamala--well, you can take the girl out of the Bay Area, you can't take the Bay Area out of the girl. (We talk about this a bit in today's podcast.)
I couldn't agree more than if what Biden's trying to do is cultivate the Dearborn vote, he's an idiot. He needs to do *exactly* the opposite. The far left has nowhere to go; it's the Nikki voters he needs to persuade. But as John pointed out to me in the podcast, the audience for this might not be domestic--and might not be Israeli, either.
I'm cutting them a bit of slack on Israel, despite the criticisms you'll hear in the podcast, because so far the behavior has been solid, even if the criticism and leaking is infuriating and deeply harmful. Biden et al. are still doing the most important things: vetoing resolutions at the UN and replenishing the weapons. (Or trying to, anyway: It isn't his fault that Congress is in the hands of lunatics.) By the way, Jay, if you're listening: If you think Trump would be better on Israel, remember that it's Trump who told his buttboy Mike Johnson to kill the bill that would have sent them the weapons they need. I don't know how far they are from needing those the way Ukraine does--they may have enough of everything they need stockpiled to be able to hold out for quite some time (and they'd be fools if they didn't). But I'll take a Biden who says idiotic things but tries to get Israel the ammo it needs over a Trump who says the wrong things and is trying to cut Israel off completely in the middle of a desperate war.
And another thought just occurred to me. Perhaps Biden & Co. are worried about what might happen during the Democratic National Convention this summer. It's taking place in Chicago—an ill omen. And it'll be catnip for the "anti-Zionist" mob, wouldn't it? "The Whole World Is Watching: River-to-Sea Edition."
Good points, mostly. I just think that the contradiction between actions and words is not something that a bunch of second-raters like the cadres of the Biden Administration can sustain. Bismarck could have done it, sure, but there seems to be a shortage of Bismarckian guile in America at the moment. The Administration will have to break one way or the other eventually, and I fear it'll break against Israel.
I do too. But I think Biden is, basically, an old-school, imprinted-on-Leon-Uris Zionist. He can't stand Netanyahu, but I think he basically loves and admires Israel. (But Kamala, I suspect, is a standard-issue left-wing antisemite.)
The problem is in blue areas even Jews aren't really into Israel. I have seen Vladislav Davidzon speak twice now in Boston both times. The last time early this week was before a large crowd of Jewish and Eastern European studies students and the previous time was at what I think was a fairly left wing reform synagogue(not an expert on these thing but it reminded of one those left wing protestant denominations like the Unitarians). Anyways on both occasions the audience which I think was overwhelmingly Jewish wanted to primarily talk about Ukraine and showed little interest or support for Israel(Vlad knows these people better than me and maybe he would contradict my observation)
On the first talk something that has been stuck in my head is the fact the Rabbi said as a matter of Rabbinical doctrine and law you cannot support Vladimir Putin and be Jewish or to put it another way anyone who support Putin and says they are a Jew isn't really one and is just a faker. The rabbi also strongly implied Putin is no different than another previous dictator Jews had problems with in the previous century(She didn't say the name but it was obvious to me and I think to you). So here is the danger IMHO if Israel is perceived to supporting Putin and we can debate whether or not that is true but even Vladislav would acknowledge this isn't an open and shut question well if Jews can't support Putin and be Jewish as a matter or rabbinical law then well Israel can't really be a Jewish state. THIS is my mind is the biggest danger for Israel and one the River to the Sea crowd would be pushing if they were not garden variety anti-Semites and were actually trying to take down the State of Israel. That is delegitimize the state of Israel and it's lack of support for Ukraine as matter of rabbinical law and doctrine.
Now to be clear this isn't exactly the first time the state of Israel has had issues with rabbinical doctrine and authority(and it still has in parts of the orthodox community) but the way Israel in the past got rabbinical support is that after 1967 the rabbis followed there congregations. You have to wonder if in fact this time around the rot is even deeper and the rabbis are now following the congregations again just in the opposite direction. Again Vlad might disagree with me. He knows this people very well much better than me including the rabbi I was referring. I think they can't stand Netanyahu and can't stand anyone in Judiaism who doesn't support Ukraine. Does that mean they don't support Israel? Not yet but I emphasize the yet.
No doubt some American Jews will pick Biden over Israel. But many more are going to be asking why he hasn’t stepped up to denounce the horrifying outburst of antisemitism in America since October 7. Is there a good answer to that question? Inquiring minds want to know.
Totally disagree about Biden. I don't think he likes Israel at all. He compared the Palestinians with the Irish in a visit to East Jerusalem, even quoting a Seamus Heaney poem. I think he'd love to dump it but he can't.
Biden is inadvertently helping Netanyahu; the latest polls show his party beating Gantz’s by 10 Knesset seats and likewise their prospective coalitions by an even wider margin.
At this point Biden is basically a potato, what he personally thinks is irrelevant.
He's also a weathervane politician, though.
This century Biden has as good a foreign policy record as any major politician…he isn’t a “weathervane” but he does want to win reelection. The “virtue signaling” Biden does is generally to placate progressives while he implements policies Republicans have supported in the past. So the LNG pause is the best example—we have become energy dominant thanks to Biden’s policies and to placate progressives he does a pause on new export terminals in 2027.
Matt Welch calls him a "rusty weathervane"; he shifts his position long after the wind has begun to blow in that direction.