70 Comments

To Tim Smyth. (For some reason I can’t reply to your comment in the thread where you wrote it).

How American Jews feel about Ukraine or Israel simply doesn’t matter much. The reason is simple; most segments of the American Jewish community are experiencing demographic collapse. American Jews are about as fecund as Episcopalians which is to say, not fecund at all. There’s also a lot of intermarriage and few of the children in these marriages are raised Jewish. Within two generations the American Jewish community will barely be visible.

Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jews don’t intermarry and they make a lot of babies. Orthodox Jews produce on average 3 children per marraige which is way above replacement. Ultra-Orthodox American Jews have on average 7 children per marriage. Orthodox Jews are far more supportive of Israel than secular and reform Jews and they are also more likely to vote Republican. Ultra Orthidox Jews are socially very conservative and they vote as a block. It’s important to remember that a sizable portion of the ultra-Orthodox community (about 15 percent, primarily the Satmar sect) is not Zionist and opposes Israel for religious reasons (they believe the State of Israel can only be established when the Messiah finally comes).

Jews currently make up 2.5 percent of the American population. By the end of the century it will be less than one percent. By then, there won’t be many more American Jews than American Sikhs. The few Jews still remaining in the United States will be more conservative than ever and most, but not all, will be fervent Zionists. Their numbers will be far too small to matter.

Those congregations you visited, Tim, will almost all die out and many of the synagogue buildings will be reconsecrated as evangelical churches. In fact, that’s already happening.

Netanyahu is right to have disdain for contemporary American Jews; he knows that the community is committing suicide.

Far and away the most important supporters of Israel in the United States are Evangelical Protestants. They are also experiencing demographic decline but there are still tens of millions of them. They are a critical voting group in at least 25 of the 50 American States.

The organization Christians United for Israel (CUFI) is more powerful than AIPAC. It’s no wonder that most of the political parties in Israel view the American. Evangelical community as at least as important (and maybe more important) than the American Jewish community.

This isn’t just an American phenomenon. Evangelical Protestants are supplanting Roman Catholics throughout Latin America and Brazil. By way of example, Bolsonaro supporters in Brazil make up almost exactly 50 percent of the population. These supporters are primarily Evangelical and fiercely Zionist. The new President of Argentina who won by an overwhelming majority is in the process of converting to Judaism. He recently visited Israel and has promised to move Argentina’s embassy to Jerusalem.

The Nazis practically denuded Europe of it’s Jewish population but we see a similar phenomenon in Europe. Movements previously associated with the fascists are now supporting Israel including the AFD in Germany and Geert Wilders party in the Netherlands. Viktor Orban claims to be deeply committed to restoring Europe’s Christian values. I can’t comment on his sincerity but one thing is apparent; he’s the most passionately pro-Israel leader in the EU.

Evangelical Christianity is not only the fastest growing religious movement in the world now, it’s one of the fastest growing religious movements in world history. Evangelical Protestantism is growing far more quickly than Islam is. Evangelicals are overwhelmingly (but not entirely) pro Israel.

Who would have guessed that Jewish supporters of Israel would diminish in importance while Evangelical supporters of Israel would become more important than ever?

Hashem works in mysterious ways.

Expand full comment

Hmm, raise your eyes above domestic politics and at the wider world. Most of the 13 comments here seem to be saying what Biden's psephologists have already told him: the Dearborn vote is far too small to win any electoral colleges, let alone the election.

Biden is simply trying to make Israel obey the laws of war.

Expand full comment
Mar 14Liked by Thomas M Gregg

Thank you for this.

Expand full comment
Mar 14Liked by Thomas M Gregg

Churchill's admonition to Chamberlain is not quite right, but it captures the essence of Biden (both as regards to Israel and Ukraine).

“You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war.'

The US has long been a "cut and run" ally. Just ask the Kurds.

But right now the stakes are particularly high. Our allies don't really trust us; the implications of that distrust are tremendous. All of Asia is paying particular attention.

Expand full comment

Biden is Blinken. The plan from day 1 was to let Israel let off some steam and then ram a PA state down their throats.

Another four years of this - or Harris??? - and the free world can turn off the lights.

Expand full comment

Yes he could! Oh, he absolutely could. Especially if this time around Javanka stay out of the White House. Remember his first reaction to the news on October 7?

Expand full comment