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Good analysis. There is a report out today that he is considering Tom Cotton for VP. If true that is the show of seriousness he needs to win.

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A new Siena College poll of New York voters only shows that Biden leads Trump by 47% to 38% in a state that Biden won by 22% in 2020.

See Q29 in https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/SNY0524-Crosstabs.pdf

Even if Trump doesn't carry NY, the most likely case, this could impact a number of House seats; the 5 House seats Republicans won in NY in 2022 are their majority in the House.

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When he was a Democrat he was loved.

He knew all the bigwigs on the party.

When he switched sides they turned on him.

Trump is a clever man, he saw the evil that is Democrat thinking and became a Republican.

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