Back in June, Democrats talked themselves into the idea that the Supreme Court’s bombshell ruling on abortion had handed them a winning issue for the midterm elections. And for a few short weeks, it appeared that they might be right. But now, with the election less than a week off, it’s clear that the Dems miscalculated badly. Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization didn’t really change the political calculus of midterm elections: The 2022 edition, like so many of its predecessors, has boiled down to a referendum on the President and his party.
The Democrats based their pitch to the electorate on three propositions: (1) defending abortion rights, (2) defending “our democracy,” and (3) all the great things that President Biden and the Democrats have done. The American people, meanwhile, clearly signaled that their top concerns are (1) inflation and the state of the economy, (2) law and order, and (3) border security. But instead of addressing these concerns, the President and his party are waving them away. Governor Kathy Hochel of New York, for instance, has scolded the public for failing to appreciate that statistically, crime simply isn’t a big problem in the Empire State.
This disconnect has left Democrats in disarray on the electoral home stretch. President Biden isn’t helping, this thanks to his general unpopularity and the lameness of his ultra-mega-MAGA line, the political messaging equivalent of New Coke. The party’s sense of resignation has become palpable in recent days—for good reason. Barring a miracle, control of both the House and Senate is about to pass into Republican hands. It turns out that this time around, the GOP, supposedly the Stupid Party, did a far more effective job of connecting with the American people on the issues that concern them.
Herewith, then, is the official Un-Woke in Indiana 2022 Midterm Election Prediction:
(1) Republicans will flip the House of Representatives (30-seat majority)
(2) Republicans will flip the Senate (2-seat majority)
(3) Republican gubernatorial candidates will prevail in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Oregon, Wisconsin
(4) The New York gubernatorial race will be close, but Hochel, the Democratic incumbent, will survive
Note: I consider this to be a conservative estimate; GOP gains may well be larger.
So there you have it. If I prove to be correct, I expect to be honored with hosannas and waving palm fronds. If I prove to be wrong, I’m prepared to duck and dodge and make lame excuses as the brickbats and rotten tomatoes rain down on me.
Don’t forget to vote!