Quick Take: Roe v. Wade in the Rearview Mirror
What the existing abortion regime's possible demise would and would not mean
The likely—albeit not certain—overturn of Roe v. Wade has touched off a loud and not very coherent discussion, replete with hyperbole and false claims, about the consequences of returning the abortion issue to state jurisdiction. Naturally, this variety of opinions is highly colored by the political proclivities of those dishing them—myself included. However, it does seem to me that some things are already fairly clear, to wit:
Item One: The demise of Roe v. Wade wouldn’t mean the end of abortion in the United States. All existing state abortion laws, the one you like and the ones you hate, would remain in place. By one estimate, the number of abortions performed annually would decline by around 15% post-Roe. The CDC estimates that in 2019, 629, 898 abortions were performed in this country. You do the math.
Item Two: Contrary to what some progressives on Twitter are claiming, overturning Roe v. Wade would not create a legal precedent for the overturn of other Supreme Court decisions such as Obergefell v. Hodges, which legalized same-sex marriage. That case was decided on straightforward discrimination grounds; the “privacy rights” argument in Roe played no role in Obergefell.
Item Three: Democrats and progressives clearly hope that Roe v. Wade’s overturn will mobilize the American electorate against the GOP in the upcoming midterm elections. This is wishful thinking: The public is just not on the same page with progressives on the issue of abortion. While a majority is supportive of abortion rights in general, it takes a much more restrictive view of abortion in particular. But the progressive position is radical in the extreme, admitting of no restrictions at all on “a woman’s right to choose.” So unless they move closer to the position of the public—which their radical activist base won’t let them do—Democrats will merely be preaching to the choir. And if they put abortion at the center of electoral strategy, large number of voters with other concerns such as inflation and education are likely to conclude that the Dems don’t have their interests at heart.
Item Four: The disconnect between the position of the Democratic Party’s radical base and the American public will also complicate any attempt to codify Roe v. Wade in federal law. Even assuming that such a bill could get through the current Senate—and that’s a dubious assumption indeed—it would identify the whole party with pro-abortion extremism. It seems doubtful to me that Democrats in red and purple states and congressional districts would relish the prospect of defending late-term and partial-birth abortion. And of course, such a measure would be met by a barrage of lawsuits, keeping abortion front and center, elbowing all other issues aside. This would scarcely be helpful to what’s left of the hapless Biden Administration’s agenda.
Item Five: The day after Roe v. Wade’s overturn, things will look pretty much the same in America, and most people will notice no difference in their lives.
Anyhow, that’s my take.