Quick Take: One-State Wave
Such are the perils of punditry.
The red wave I anticipated on Election Day 2022 kind of failed to materialize. I say kind of because it swept over Florida with the force of a tsunami, only to peter out as it moved inland. As I write, the issue remains in doubt. It does appear that Republicans will flip the House, albeit with a much smaller majority than I predicted. On the Senate side, a continuing fifty-fifty split or a one-seat GOP majority seems likely. All in all, it was a disappointing night for the GOP.
But if I were a Democrat, I’d be opting for beer over champagne. True, the President and his party dodged a bullet. But Biden is still Biden and now it will be harder, perhaps impossible, for the Dems to rid themselves of him in favor of a plausible 2024 presidential candidate. And the outcome in Florida presents Republicans with the opportunity to do likewise. Donald Trump has shown once again that his influence over the Republican Party is toxic. If what happened yesterday doesn’t convince the GOP to dump Trump and embrace Ron DeSantis as their 2024 standard bearer, then it really is the Stupid Party.
Florida, indeed, gave Republicans a tremendous victory. Both Governor DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio demolished their Democratic opponents, and their victories echoed down the ballot. After the lame ducks slink off, not one single statewide office in Florida will held by Democrats. It was a wipeout, and the Sunshine State is now as solidly red as Indiana or Wyoming.
There was other good news as well. In Georgia, Governor Brian Kemp did his state and America a favor by scoring a decisive victory over the insufferable Stacey Abrams: Good riddance to the Rightful Governor of the Peach State. What’s next for Stacey? Personally, I think she’d fit right in with the ladies of The View. Good riddance as well to Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke, the Great Blue Hope of the Lone Star State. He went down in flames in his bid to unseat the incumbent governor of Texas, Greg Abbot. Beto will be remembered as the most absurdly overhyped Texas Democrat since Wendy “Pink Running Shoes” Davis. Sorry Democrats, but Texas remains red.
In New York, the most azure of blue states, incumbent Democratic governor Kathy Hochul prevailed over her Republican challenger, Lee Zeldin, by a narrow three-point margin. In 2018 Andrew Cuomo, whom Hochul replaced as governor after he was driven from office, won by more than twenty points. Though Zeldin fell short, his spirited challenge boosted other Republican candidates down the ballot. The GOP has flipped two House seats so far, and several other House races in New York remain too close to call. One of the Republican pickups occurred in NY-17, where Sean Patrick Maloney—the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee!—lost by a hair to New York state assemblyman Michael Lawler. In 2020, Joe Biden carried NY-17 by a ten-point margin.
So what went wrong for Republicans? First, as the Senate results clearly show, candidate quality was a major problem. In Pennsylvania and Georgia, the GOP ran Trump-endorsed celebrities for Senate: Dr. Mehmet Oz and Herschel Walker. The latter may prevail in the December runoff election mandated by Georgia law—though I wouldn’t bet on it—but pass the butter and jam, because Doc Oz is toast. Celebrities, even when they manage to get themselves elected, tend to make poor politicians.
In New Hampshire, the GOP Senate candidate was a Trump-endorsed MAGA election denier who had trouble keeping his foot out of his mouth. He lost a race that a mainstream Republican candidate would probably have won. Even worse was the Trump-endorsed Republican candidate for governor in Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano—a zany conspiracy theorist, election denier and anti-Semite who was trounced by his Democratic opponent.
The story was much the same across the country, where candidates whom Trump endorsed performed poorly. The red hat and the pledge of allegiance to The Donald’s absurd and poisonous election denialism may be all right for certain deep-dyed red corners of America, but in swing states like Arizona, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, they’re a no go.
Second, lots of people, myself included, underestimated the influence of the abortion issue. It was not, as the Dems hoped, a decisive game changer. But the charge that Republicans are plotting to abolish abortion altogether clearly touched a nerve. As things turned out, abortion was a matter of concern to a critical mass of voters, such that it helped to limit Republican House gains. Going forward, the GOP would be well advised to follow the Supreme Court’s advice and leave abortion to the states.
So there it is. Some may say that it wasn’t such a bad night for Republicans, but by comparison with expectations it was pretty dismal on the whole. As a partisan I’m disappointed. As a student of American politics, however, I shall be watching with interest as both parties digest the message that voters sent them yesterday. There are lessons to be learned on both sides, if only Republicans and Democrats can figure out what they are. On that score, I’m not too optimistic…
Thomas, you can perhaps take some comfort in the fact that you have plenty of company at the humble pie cafe. The much anticipated "Red Tsunami" does appear to have been more of a Red Ripple.
However, as you pointed out, Florida's DC delegation will be solidly Republican, so there's that, and we may find tat the House and Senate also go to the R's. Time will tell.
I don't follow FL politics, so will not make any comment about what happened there other than to say that between Trump and DeSantis, Gov. DeSantis would be a more credible 2024 presidential candidate should either of them decide to run, imho. (This is an outsider's view since I would not be voting for either of them). Nevertheless, if the White House should happen to be won by a Republican in '24, I would much prefer the prez-elect to be a) someone with a successful track record of having governed something somewhere and b) not be an unstable narcissistic fantasist. Democratic strategists might prefer to run against Trump, despite his HYUUGE following of loyal supporters, simply because of his very obvious shortcomings.