After His Exit
If the Democrats persuade Joe Biden to drop out, what happens next?
Indications are multiplying that behind the scenes of Democratic Party despair and disarray, a serious effort to unstick Joe Biden from the top of the ticket is afoot. Representative Adam Schiff, Democrat of California, has publicly called on the President to “pass the torch.” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is reported to have urged Biden, privately, to drop out. Growing fears that he’d lose to Trump in November, reinforced by anger at his stubborn refusal to face the facts, has party leaders and even the Biden campaign itself searching for some way to persuade the President that he cannot go on.
Biden’s enfeeblement has progressed to the point where he’s become “a national embarrassment,” as Lich Lowry, the editor of National Review put in an article published this week. The President’s interview with NBC’s Lester Holt was another debacle for him, though coming as it did soon after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, it attracted relatively little notice. His address to the annual convention of the NAACP was also a disaster, demonstrating as it did that Biden can no longer be relied upon to deliver a speech with the help of a teleprompter. Immediately afterwards, it was announced that he’d been diagnosed with COVID-19 and would be cutting short his campaign tour. Make of that what you will.
Even so, whether Biden can actually be persuaded to drop out remains a doubtful question. But if he does decide to pass the baton—what then?
Vice President Kamala Harris would be the leading contender to replace Biden as the Democratic Party’ presidential nominee. It’s far from certain, however, that Harris, who’s none too popular herself and not well liked within the party, could vanquish Trump. She has, in addition, some explaining to do concerning her role in the coverup of the President’s now obvious incapacity. What did she know, and when did she know it? Harris might plead ignorance on the grounds that she’d been frozen out of the President’s inner circle, but that wouldn’t be a good look for her either.
The Vice President’s electoral prospects would improve if Biden not only stepped down from the top of the ticket but resigned the presidency. That would make her the incumbent, running with unified party support. But this, the best-case scenario for Harris and the Democrats, is also the least likely scenario. Short of some debilitating health crisis, Biden would never agree to an early exist from the White House.
Of course, Harris, the Cabinet, and Congress could invoke the 25th Amendment against Biden if he refused to bow out. But that constitutional provision for the removal of an unfit president involves a cumbersome process demanding not only intra-party but bipartisan consensus. The President would surely fight to keep his job, and he still has supporters among House and Senate Democrats. They would no doubt be furious and could not be counted on to support Biden’s removal in Congress, where the whole mess would eventually be dumped.
As for the Republicans, the very last thing they desire is Biden’s exist from the race. Donald Trump’s unwonted silence on the Democrats’ Biden problem is a tell. He much prefers the President to stay in, and so do most Republicans. The GOP’s plausible political calculation runs as follows. Maybe Trump could beat Harris, maybe he could beat some other Democrat, but certainly he can beat a mortally wounded Biden—who, not incidentally, would take other Democratic candidates down with him. Why, therefore, would the Republicans help the Democrats get rid of him?
Finally, while Harris would be better than Biden as the Democratic Party‘s standard bearer, she’s not that great. Assuming Biden‘s exit from the race, many Democrats would prefer to replace him with someone other than the lackluster Veep. But Harris was a diversity hire, chosen on grounds of gender and race. Any attempt to bypass her would raise a hue and cry on the progressive Left—shattering the facade of party unity, which is already showing signs of wear and tear.
Bottom line? If Biden can be persuaded to drop out, he’ll be replaced by Harris. Possibly she could beat Trump, and even if she lost to him there might be less bloodletting down the Democratic ticket than seems probable if the President stays in the race.
Two weeks ago, I thought it unlikely that Biden would agree to bow out, but now I think he might. The shadows are gathering around an increasingly isolated, exhausted president. And the 2024 election may be on the verge of a reset that will shake the American political down to its foundations.
Yes, the problem for the Dems is Harris is basically a dud but also difficult to pass over in favor of someone else. That’s what happens when you saddle yourself with a diversity hire. And if Democrats think that getting rid of Biden will solve their problems, they’re kidding themselves. The coverup of Biden’s decrepitude is a huge scandal in which Harris and the wider party are complicit.
My prediction is that Harris is about to become our president, as Biden will resign after falling gravely ill from Covid. (Whether he actually has Covid or not is anyone’s guess.) One of two things will then happen - either the Dems have given up winning in 2024 and will run Harris as the sacrificial lamb in an unwinnable race, saving their more viable candidates for 2028, or Harris will become entangled in some scandal, lawsuit, medical issue, etc., which will make it impossible for her to run and they’ll replace her with a candidate they believe has a shot at beating Trump. Probably Newsom.